Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CDT.. Wednesday / 9 October 2013

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 84 to 88. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear early becoming partly cloudy as low clouds develop after midnight. Low 59 to 63. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 84 to 88. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds after midnight. Low 66 to 70. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 84 to 88. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT….  Partly cloudy early.. low clouds after 11pm. A 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 68 to 72. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 84 to 88. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 69 to 73. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 83 to 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 68 to 72. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 83 to 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 67 to 71. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes by midday.. where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 80 to 84. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting northwesterly 10 to 20 mph as the front passes.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 16 October 2013  through Tuesday / 22 October 2013…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (9 October)………………………………. 7:29 am
Sunset this evening (9 October)……………………………….. 7:06 pm
Sunrise Thursday (10 October)………………………………… 7:30 am
Sunset Thursday (10 October)…………………………………. 7:05 pm

…. Time Change Coming Up ….
Central Daylight Time (CDT) back to Central Standard Time (CST)
at 2am on Sunday, 3 November 2013 when you should turn clocks
back to 1am (“fall back”). We gain our hour back that we lost in the
spring when we went from CST to CDT.

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CDT Wednesday / 9 October 2013

…. Another Nice Day ….
…. Low Pressure/Cold Front Approaches by Next Weekend with a Chance of Rain ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a high pressure area is over the northeastern USA. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from a surface low over eastern Colorado across eastern New Mexico. A cold front extends southwestward from northern Minnesota into northern Colorado then westward into Nevada and California.  As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deepening eastward moving area of upper level low pressure trough extends southward over the western USA from eastern Washington and Oregon and western Idaho into eastern California and western Nevada. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west northwesterly 10 to 15 mph.

The surface high pressure area.. over the eastern USA.. continues to allow for our south southeasterly surface winds and the return of low level moisture to our area with a more moist weather pattern with a return to a partly cloudy sky and some late night and early morning low cloudiness for the latter part of the week into the weekend.

The upper level low.. over the western USA.. and the associated surface low pressure area and cold front will move into Texas by Saturday. Latest guidance continues to suggest, however, that the front will wash out overhead Saturday night into Sunday and Monday as a another stronger upper level low and front moves out of the Rockies by late Monday into Monday night. The second cold front will move through our area on Tuesday with cooler temperatures moving into the area.

In the interim period.. Saturday through Monday night.. as the air mass grows more moist and unstable, we’ll see increased clouds and rain chances. As time passes, this appears to a beneficial rainfall event in the offing with upwards of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall possible before the stronger cold front moves through next Tuesday. I’ll keep my fingers crossed and continue to watch this for you.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Very high forecast confidence through Friday.. then medium confidence for the weekend into next week as it regards the progress and timing of upper air low pressure and fronts over the southern plains and any associated rain chances.

Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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