Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 8 October 2013

…. A Stable Dry Weather Pattern ….
…. Another Cold Front Approaches by Next Weekend with a Chance of Rain ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a high pressure area is over the Ohio Valley and the middle Mississippi Valley. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from a surface low over eastern Colorado across eastern New Mexico and west Texas. Another high pressure region is over the four corners region. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are becoming south southeasterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level low pressure trough extends southward over the northeastern USA with another one over the Pacific Northwest. Between the two low pressure areas.. a ridge of upper level high pressure is over northern Mexico and the south central USA. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly 10 to 15 mph.

The surface high pressure area.. that moved into the area in the wake of Saturday’s front.. continues eastward allowing for our south southeasterly surface winds. Low level moisture will begin to return to the area with a more moist weather pattern with a return to a partly cloudy sky and some late night and early morning low cloudiness for the middle and latter part of the week into the weekend.

Another low pressure area and cold front will move into Texas by Saturday and Saturday night. Latest guidance, however, is delaying the progress of the front until early to mid next week as a another stronger front moves out of the Rockies. Even so, the atmosphere will grow more unstable with the approach of this first front and I will keep rain chances beginning Saturday and continuing Sunday and into the early part of next week until the front finally clears the area.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Very high forecast confidence through Friday.. then medium confidence for the weekend into next week as it regards the fronts over the southern plains and any associated rain chances.

Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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