Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CDT Wednesday / 9 October 2013

…. Another Nice Day ….
…. Low Pressure/Cold Front Approaches by Next Weekend with a Chance of Rain ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a high pressure area is over the northeastern USA. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from a surface low over eastern Colorado across eastern New Mexico. A cold front extends southwestward from northern Minnesota into northern Colorado then westward into Nevada and California.  As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deepening eastward moving area of upper level low pressure trough extends southward over the western USA from eastern Washington and Oregon and western Idaho into eastern California and western Nevada. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west northwesterly 10 to 15 mph.

The surface high pressure area.. over the eastern USA.. continues to allow for our south southeasterly surface winds and the return of low level moisture to our area with a more moist weather pattern with a return to a partly cloudy sky and some late night and early morning low cloudiness for the latter part of the week into the weekend.

The upper level low.. over the western USA.. and the associated surface low pressure area and cold front will move into Texas by Saturday. Latest guidance continues to suggest, however, that the front will wash out overhead Saturday night into Sunday and Monday as a another stronger upper level low and front moves out of the Rockies by late Monday into Monday night. The second cold front will move through our area on Tuesday with cooler temperatures moving into the area.

In the interim period.. Saturday through Monday night.. as the air mass grows more moist and unstable, we’ll see increased clouds and rain chances. As time passes, this appears to a beneficial rainfall event in the offing with upwards of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall possible before the stronger cold front moves through next Tuesday. I’ll keep my fingers crossed and continue to watch this for you.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Very high forecast confidence through Friday.. then medium confidence for the weekend into next week as it regards the progress and timing of upper air low pressure and fronts over the southern plains and any associated rain chances.

Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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