Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CST.. Thursday / 14 November 2013

TODAY…. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. High 58 to 62. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles after midnight. Low 47 to 51. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy and warmer with a 20% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. High 69 to 73. Southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 59 to 63. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 75 to 79. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 61 to 65. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 76 to 80. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a less than 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes after midnight.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 55 to 59. Southerly wind shifting north northwesterly 12 to 22 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy.. windy and cooler. High 64 to 68. North northwesterly wind 15 to 25 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 41 to 45. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 62 to 66. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 34 to 38. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 64 to 68. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 21 November 2013  through Wednesday / 27 November 2013…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (14 November)………………………………. 6:56 am
Sunset this evening (14 November)……………………………….. 5:35 pm
Sunrise Friday (15 November)………………………………………. 6:57 am
Sunset Friday (15 November)……………………………………….. 5:34 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CST Thursday / 14 November 2013

…. A Warm Up In Store ….
…. A More Unsettled Period with Slim Rain Chances Late Week into Weekend ….
…. Another Cold Front Late Sunday Night into the Predawn Hours Monday ….

On this Thursday morning…. a large area of surface high pressure covers the area from the Carolinas west southwestward into southeastern Texas. A cold front extends southwestward from the Great Lakes into Colorado and southern Utah. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are southeasterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends south southwestward over the central part of the USA. As a result of the overall upper level wind flow, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly 25 to 35 mph.

As the surface high to our east continues to move eastward and as another low pressure area deepens to our west, we’ll see a fairly rapid return to warmer temperatures and clouds later today through tonight into tomorrow. Rain chances show up by as early as late tonight and again over the weekend even though the latest guidance continues to pulling back on the rain chances.

Another cold front.. a little weaker and slower in arriving that I thought yesterday.. will move through the area late Sunday night into early Monday morning with a very slim chance of rain. Cooler temperatures and clearing skies will follow for Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very forecast confidence through Thursday into Friday (some question about when the clouds pick up today into tomorrow) with a moderate to high confidence forecast for the weekend into early next week (some questions regarding cloud coverage and rain chances and the exact timing and strength of the Sunday/Monday cold front).

Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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