Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 26 February 2014

TODAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cold with occasional light rain. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 80% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 40 to 44. Breezy northerly winds in the morning decreasing to 8 to 15 mph by afternoon.

TONIGHT…. A few sprinkles early. A cloudy sky. Low 34 to 38. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more easterly after midnight.

THURSDAY…. Clouds in the morning becoming partly cloudy and warmer by afternoon. High 53 to 57. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more southeasterly in the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 49. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy and much warmer. High 71 to 75. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early. Low clouds late with patchy fog and drizzle developing after midnight. Low 52 to 56. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Patchy morning fog and drizzle.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 65 to 69. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy into late evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and drizzle after midnight. Low 45 to 49. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Patchy morning fog and drizzle otherwise mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average less than 1/4 inch or less. High 67 to 71. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms as a cold front passes through the area. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch. Decreasing clouds after midnight. Southeasterly wind shifting northerly 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 54 to 58. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 34 to 38. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 53 to 57. Light east northeasterly wind.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 5 March 2014 through Tuesday / 11 March 2014…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (26 February)…………………………….. 7:00 am
Sunset this evening (26 February)………………………………. 6:28 pm
Sunrise Thursday (27 February)…………………………………. 6:59 am
Sunset Thursday (27 February)………………………………….. 6:29 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CT – Wednesday / 26 February 2014

…. Rain Chances Diminish by Tonight ….
…. A Little More Sunshine Tomorrow into the Weekend ….
…. Several Cold Fronts on Tap over the Next Seven Days ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a cold front extends west southwestward from southern Louisiana to just offshore of the upper and middle Texas coast then inland south of Corpus Christi and into northern Mexico. The surface high pressure area /1035mb/ behind the front is now centered over northeastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a massive low pressure area.. over Hudson Bay.. is resulting in a deepening trough (or line) of low pressure over the northeastern USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 40 to 50 mph.

Today, as an upper air low pressure disturbance crosses the area, we’ll see our highest rain chances of the week. Once it departs to our northeast by tonight, rain chances will end with clouds decreasing across the area.

A partly cloudy sky.. return southeasterly surface wind and warmer temperatures will return by tomorrow into Friday as another very weak cold front moves approaches the area from the northeast Friday night. I do not expect much sensible weather with the front.

Partly cloudy skies will prevail with slightly cooler temperatures Saturday into Saturday night before clouds increase with slim rain chances by Sunday. A second stronger cold front is due by Sunday night into early Monday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is moderate to high through tonight (rainfall timing and amounts throw in a bit of uncertainty). My forecast confidence rises back to high for tomorrow through the weekend and into early next week.

Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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