Updated 845am CT – Tuesday / 25 February 2014
…. Cloudy and Better Rain Chances ….
…. A Little More Sunshine Late Week into the Weekend ….
…. Several Cold Fronts on Tap over the Next Seven Days ….
On this Tuesday morning…. a stationary front extends south southwestward from northeastern Texas to just to north of Austin then into far west Texas and New Mexico. The surface high pressure area /1034mb/ behind the front is centered over South Dakota with a ridge northwestward into Canada. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are easterly across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a large low pressure area.. over Hudson Bay.. is resulting in a deepening trough (or line) of low pressure over the eastern USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west southwesterly at 35 to 45 mph.
Today, as an upper air low pressure disturbance crosses the area, we’ll see a peak in atmospheric instability and lift and, as a result, our highest rain chances of the week. A few stronger thunderstorms are possible. As the upper air disturbance departs to our northeast by tomorrow night, a strong surface cold front.. just to the north.. will surge south southeastward across the area.
As the shallow surface wedge of colder air moves into the area, moisture will overrun the colder air with clouds and light rain persisting through tomorrow with unseasonably chilly air prevails. Rain chances will decrease by early tomorrow night with clouds slowly breaking by Thursday.
A partly cloudy sky.. return southeasterly surface wind and warmer temperatures will return by late day Thursday into Friday before yet another cold front moves through the area Friday evening. I do not expect much sensible weather, other than a wind shift, with the front.
Partly cloudy skies will prevail with slightly cooler temperatures Saturday into Saturday night before clouds increase with slim rain chances by Sunday. Another cold front is due by Sunday night into early Monday.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is moderate through tomorrow (frontal timing and rainfall amounts throw in a bit of uncertainty). My forecast confidence rises back to high for Thursday through the weekend.
Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel