Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT – Wednesday / 26 February 2014

…. Rain Chances Diminish by Tonight ….
…. A Little More Sunshine Tomorrow into the Weekend ….
…. Several Cold Fronts on Tap over the Next Seven Days ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a cold front extends west southwestward from southern Louisiana to just offshore of the upper and middle Texas coast then inland south of Corpus Christi and into northern Mexico. The surface high pressure area /1035mb/ behind the front is now centered over northeastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a massive low pressure area.. over Hudson Bay.. is resulting in a deepening trough (or line) of low pressure over the northeastern USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 40 to 50 mph.

Today, as an upper air low pressure disturbance crosses the area, we’ll see our highest rain chances of the week. Once it departs to our northeast by tonight, rain chances will end with clouds decreasing across the area.

A partly cloudy sky.. return southeasterly surface wind and warmer temperatures will return by tomorrow into Friday as another very weak cold front moves approaches the area from the northeast Friday night. I do not expect much sensible weather with the front.

Partly cloudy skies will prevail with slightly cooler temperatures Saturday into Saturday night before clouds increase with slim rain chances by Sunday. A second stronger cold front is due by Sunday night into early Monday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is moderate to high through tonight (rainfall timing and amounts throw in a bit of uncertainty). My forecast confidence rises back to high for tomorrow through the weekend and into early next week.

Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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