Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 17 March 2014

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 65. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 38. Light east southeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine and warmer. High 79. South southwesterly wind 10 to 20 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 49. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming north northeasterly 5 to 12 mph after midnight as a cold front passes.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny and a little cooler. High 69. Northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 49. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming southeasterly after midnight.

THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 72. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then cloudy after midnight with patchy fog and drizzle developing. Low 58. Southeasterly winds 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Patchy morning fog and drizzle.. otherwise mostly cloudy. High 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 61. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes in the early morning hours. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 70. Southerly winds 5 to 12 mph shifting northerly 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and cooler with a 20% chance of rain. Low 51. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 64. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 24 March 2014 through Sunday / 30 March 2014…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 March)……………………………… 7:38 am
Sunset this evening (17 March)………………………………. 7:41 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (18 March)………………………………….. 7:37 am
Sunset Tuesday (18 March)…………………………………… 7:41 pm

…. Change of Seasons Coming Up ….
We will experience the Vernal Equinox on Thursday / 20 March at
11:57am CDT.. this denotes the official beginning of the spring season.

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CT – Monday / 17 March 2014

…. Lots of Sunshine to Start the Week ….
…. Humidity and Increased Clouds For the Latter Part of the Week ….
…. Slim Chance of Rain Friday into the Weekend ….

On this Monday morning…. a high pressure area /1020mb/ is over the area from northwest Texas into northern Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep upper level low extends southwestward from northern Mississippi to along the Texas coast. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northerly at 55 to 65 mph.

With surface high pressure overhead.. we start the week with abundant sunshine with below average temperatures.

By tonight into tomorrow, we’ll see a return southerly surface wind flow with much warmer temperatures by tomorrow. In addition, with a gusty southwesterly surface wind tomorrow combining with the chronic drought conditions and dormant vegetation, expect high fire danger as well.

As low level moisture increases by late week, clouds will be on the increase with late night and early morning low cloudiness along with some patchy morning drizzle. By late Friday into Friday night and early Saturday, as another cold front approaches the area, we’ll see a slim chance of rain.

Even as the Saturday cold front moves well south and east of the local area and surface high pressure settles southward over the area.. current forecast guidance suggests that passing upper level disturbances may allow for clouds to linger back over the cooler air with some indication of patchy light overrunning rain Saturday into Sunday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high today through Wednesday and then high to very high for Thursday and Friday. By the weekend, my forecast confidence falls back to medium (timing of the cold front on Saturday as well any overrunning clouds/rainfall being the issues).

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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