… Note: I’ll be taking Friday/14March off and will not update this product until Mon/17Mar… Have a good weekend …
Updated 845am CT – Thursday / 13 March 2014
…. Plenty of Sun Today ….
…. Thickening Clouds Tonight into Friday and the Weekend ….
…. Rain Chances Reappear ….
On this Thursday morning…. a high pressure area /1029mb/ is over our south central Texas area. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light and variable.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level low pressure disturbance is over the southwestern USA over Nevada and southern California. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west northwesterly at 50 to 60 mph.
Another sunny and windy day is ahead. Surface high pressure.. overhead now.. will move eastward with a return south southeasterly surface wind flow by this afternoon.
The upper level low pressure area, over the southwestern USA, will very slowly move eastward through the weekend with upper level disturbances being ejected northeastward in the counterclockwise upper air flow. As these disturbances move across Texas in the coming days, clouds will be on the increase with a few sprinkles possible as early as late tomorrow and continuing through the weekend.
By late Saturday night into early Sunday, the upper level disturbance itself will move across Texas which will allow a surface cold front to sweep through the area before daybreak Sunday.
Drier and slightly cooler conditions will prevail for later in the day Sunday into the early part of next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high to very high today.. then falls back to medium for tomorrow through Saturday and Saturday night into early Sunday (timing of clouds, any rainfall chances as well as frontal passage timing on Sunday being the issues). My forecast confidence increases back to high to very high for later in the day Sunday into early next week.
Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel