Updated 845am CT – Monday / 17 March 2014
…. Lots of Sunshine to Start the Week ….
…. Humidity and Increased Clouds For the Latter Part of the Week ….
…. Slim Chance of Rain Friday into the Weekend ….
On this Monday morning…. a high pressure area /1020mb/ is over the area from northwest Texas into northern Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northwesterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep upper level low extends southwestward from northern Mississippi to along the Texas coast. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northerly at 55 to 65 mph.
With surface high pressure overhead.. we start the week with abundant sunshine with below average temperatures.
By tonight into tomorrow, we’ll see a return southerly surface wind flow with much warmer temperatures by tomorrow. In addition, with a gusty southwesterly surface wind tomorrow combining with the chronic drought conditions and dormant vegetation, expect high fire danger as well.
As low level moisture increases by late week, clouds will be on the increase with late night and early morning low cloudiness along with some patchy morning drizzle. By late Friday into Friday night and early Saturday, as another cold front approaches the area, we’ll see a slim chance of rain.
Even as the Saturday cold front moves well south and east of the local area and surface high pressure settles southward over the area.. current forecast guidance suggests that passing upper level disturbances may allow for clouds to linger back over the cooler air with some indication of patchy light overrunning rain Saturday into Sunday.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high today through Wednesday and then high to very high for Thursday and Friday. By the weekend, my forecast confidence falls back to medium (timing of the cold front on Saturday as well any overrunning clouds/rainfall being the issues).
Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel