Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 24 March 2014

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. High 65. Light east northeasterly wind.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy through midnight with decreasing clouds thereafter. A weak reinforcing cold front will move through the area around midnight. Low 48. Northeasterly increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 69. Northeasterly winds 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy in the evening.. then mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles after midnight. Low 49. Easterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 64. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 55. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy in the morning with a few rain showers before 9am. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 1/10th of an inch. Becoming partly cloudy and warmer in the afternoon. High 78. South southwesterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 58. Southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy with a cold front passing through the area by midday. High 79. Southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting north northeasterly by afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and a little cooler. Low 49. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph decreasing to 5 to 12 mph after midnight.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 74. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 49. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 76. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming southeasterly by afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 31 March 2014 through Sunday / 6 April 2014…
Temperature… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (24 March)……………………………… 7:30 am
Sunset this evening (24 March)………………………………. 7:45 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (25 March)…………………………………… 7:28 am
Sunset Tuesday (25 March)……………………………………. 7:46 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CT – Monday / 24 March 2014

…. Clouds To Start the New Week ….
…. Sunshine Returns Tuesday ….
…. Mid Week Rain Chances and a Late Week Cold Front ….

On this Monday morning…. surface high pressure /1024mb/ is situated over south central Texas with a weakening cold front over the Gulf of Mexico and over northeastern Mexico. A developing area of low pressure /1014mb/ is over western Kansas and eastern Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are north northeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a broad upper level low pressure trough is over the eastern half of the USA with an upper level low pressure area over the Pacific coast of southern California. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 55 to 65 mph.

An overrunning pattern continues.. with clouds and slim rain chances.. over the local area. The rain chances over the last 24 hours, for the most part, failed to materialize with the most significant rainfall mainly to our north. By tonight into tomorrow.. clouds will break with the passage of another weak reinforcing cold front moving through the area.

After sunshine tomorrow, another upper level low pressure disturbance will cross the area by late tomorrow night through Wednesday into early Thursday with increased cloud cover and better rain and even thunderstorms. Current NWS guidance.. yes, the same guidance that predicted the same over the last few days that largely didn’t verify..  suggests upwards of 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain locally with this passing system.

By Thursday, as the upper air system moves east of the area, clouds will break with more sunshine and warmer temperatures expected. Another cold front is expected in the area by sometime Friday but it will result in only a slight cool down as abundant sunshine continues into the weekend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in the details of my forecast is high to very high today and tonight and through tomorrow. By tomorrow night into Wednesday into early Thursday, my forecast confidence decreases to medium to high (timing of the passage of the upper level low and associated rain chances being the issues). My forecast confidence rises back to high by Thursday midday and afternoon through the weekend (the cold frontal timing on Friday being the primary uncertain issue).

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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