Updated 845am CT – Monday / 24 March 2014
…. Clouds To Start the New Week ….
…. Sunshine Returns Tuesday ….
…. Mid Week Rain Chances and a Late Week Cold Front ….
On this Monday morning…. surface high pressure /1024mb/ is situated over south central Texas with a weakening cold front over the Gulf of Mexico and over northeastern Mexico. A developing area of low pressure /1014mb/ is over western Kansas and eastern Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are north northeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a broad upper level low pressure trough is over the eastern half of the USA with an upper level low pressure area over the Pacific coast of southern California. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 55 to 65 mph.
An overrunning pattern continues.. with clouds and slim rain chances.. over the local area. The rain chances over the last 24 hours, for the most part, failed to materialize with the most significant rainfall mainly to our north. By tonight into tomorrow.. clouds will break with the passage of another weak reinforcing cold front moving through the area.
After sunshine tomorrow, another upper level low pressure disturbance will cross the area by late tomorrow night through Wednesday into early Thursday with increased cloud cover and better rain and even thunderstorms. Current NWS guidance.. yes, the same guidance that predicted the same over the last few days that largely didn’t verify.. suggests upwards of 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain locally with this passing system.
By Thursday, as the upper air system moves east of the area, clouds will break with more sunshine and warmer temperatures expected. Another cold front is expected in the area by sometime Friday but it will result in only a slight cool down as abundant sunshine continues into the weekend.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in the details of my forecast is high to very high today and tonight and through tomorrow. By tomorrow night into Wednesday into early Thursday, my forecast confidence decreases to medium to high (timing of the passage of the upper level low and associated rain chances being the issues). My forecast confidence rises back to high by Thursday midday and afternoon through the weekend (the cold frontal timing on Friday being the primary uncertain issue).
Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel