Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT – Friday / 21 March 2014

…. Clouds and Humidity Picking Up ….
…. Chance of Rain Through the Weekend ….
…. Return to Sunshine for Early to Mid Parts of Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. surface high pressure /1022mb/ is situated over northwestern Georgia. Low pressure /1004mb/ is deepening over southern Kansas with a low pressure trough extending southwestward through west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. A southeastward moving cold front is over northern Kansas and Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deepening upper level low pressure trough extends southwestward over the western third of the USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west southwesterly at 35 to 45 mph.

With the surface high now well east of the area and low pressure deepening to our northwest.. low level moisture is starting to increase and clouds will be on the increase with late night and early morning low cloudiness.

By late Saturday night into Sunday morning, as another cold front approaches the area, we’ll see a better chance of rain. The best rain chances, however, may occur after the cold front passes on Sunday into Sunday night. Current forecast guidance continues to suggest that passing upper level disturbances gliding up and over the surface based cool air will allow for these clouds to linger with some overrunning rain through Sunday into early next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high today. By tonight through weekend, my forecast confidence falls back to medium (timing of the cold front late Saturday night into early Sunday morning as well any overrunning clouds/rainfall for the weekend into early next week being the issues). My forecast confidence rises back to high to very high by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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