Updated 800am CT – Tuesday / 07 October 2014
…. South Southeasterly Surface Winds Continue ….
…. Warmer Temperatures and Higher Humidity ….
On this Tuesday morning…. a trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends southward from central Kansas and western Oklahoma into southwest Texas. High pressure.. to our east.. is located off the east coast. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a broad and deep trough of low pressure is situated southward from Hudson Bay through the eastern half of the country. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are northwesterly 20 to 25 mph.
A dry and stable weather pattern will prevail through most of the balance of the week.
By Friday into the weekend.. some remnant mid and upper air moisture from the Pacific Ocean will combine with available atmospheric instability.. low level gulf moisture as well as an approaching upper level low pressure disturbance to give us rain shower and thunderstorm chances. Current indications are that we would see widely scattered to scattered precipitation.
By late Sunday into Monday, the upper air disturbance will move across Texas and will allow, in its wake, for a cold front to surge southeastward through Texas with perhaps the best rain chances of the seven day forecast. Guidance suggests that the cold front will arrive in our local area sometime between 4am and 8am Monday. Drier.. much drier and slightly cooler air will overtake the state of Texas.
Just for information.. the newly issued rainfall guidance from the NWS suggests that we will see upwards to one inch of rain between now and Monday.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high over the next few days. By Friday into the weekend and Monday, my confidence falls to medium in regards to precipitation occurrence and timing, precipitation amounts as well as the timing of the cold front early next week.
Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel