Updated 800am CT – Monday / 06 October 2014
…. South Southeasterly Surface Winds Continue ….
…. Warmer Temperatures and Higher Humidity ….
On this Monday morning…. a weakening cold front is weakening as it moves southeastward along a line from central Missouri into Oklahoma and northwest Texas. High pressure.. behind the front.. is situated over the Rockies and intermountain west. High pressure.. to our east.. is located over the Carolinas coast. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a broad and deep trough of low pressure is situated southward from Hudson Bay through the eastern half of the country. A ridge.. or line.. of upper level high pressure extends northwestward from northern Mexico through northern California and southern Oregon. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are northwesterly 30 to 35 mph.
A upper level low pressure disturbance.. moving southeastward in the northwesterly wind aloft.. is located over northeast Texas. The system is causing abundant lift as it moves southeastward into a better low level moisture field and has triggered a fast moving line of thunderstorms that is moving through deep east Texas. I will include a very slim chance of rain showers and thunderstorms today for areas from Austin eastward for the possibility of some westerly development of thunderstorms as the disturbance moves further southeastward.
An otherwise dry and stable weather pattern will prevail through much of the next six or seven days. The cold front to our northwest this morning should.. even with the northwesterly wind aloft.. wash out long before getting this far southeast. Another cold front is forecast to try to move southeastward into Texas by Friday into Saturday, but, again, I expect the front to dissipate before getting this far southeast.
Longer range guidance suggests that the next front that will reach the area will be about a week or so out next Monday. Even though it is just beyond the seven day forecast period, current guidance makes me think that we will see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms along and in advance of the front with cooler temperatures following the front.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence through the next 12 hours is high (regarding any thunderstorm chances today mainly to our east).. and then tonight through the balance of the seven day forecast period my confidence is high to very high.
Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel