Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Special Briefing….

This is where I will post updates during periods of inclement/severe weather as well as weather related articles… tk

840am CT – Thursday / 06 November 2014

As we come out of this cloudy and wet weather pattern.. I wanted to give you a little summary on the event..

Austin Bergstrom.. 1.85″
Camp Mabry…. 2.10″
Rainfall, on average (thanks LCRA Hydromet), across the metro area, between 1.50 and 3.50 inches.

NWS/Flash Flood Watch….
Issued at 3:57pm Monday afternoon (to become valid 12 midnight Tuesday night/Wednesday morning to 12 noon Wednesday)
Time/area redefined at 313am Tuesday morning
Went into effect at 12 midnight Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
Canceled at 448am Wednesday morning

NWS/Flash Flood Warnings….
None in our immediate area.

This is my final update on this wet weather event.


Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement
Prepared by CTECC / UT Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
935am CT – Wednesday / 05 November 2014

… NWS / Flash Flood Watch Canceled for Travis and Williamson Counties
and Adjacent Hill Country Counties (Burnet) to our Northwest …
… NWS / Flash Flood Watch Continues for the Southern Parts of South Central Texas Including Blanco, Hays, Caldwell, Lee and Bastrop Counties Until 6pm Today …

The threat of heaviest rains has shifted to areas south of the Austin and the
flash flood watch has been canceled for the Austin metro area.

Clouds and rains are expected to persist today and tonight but the threat
of heaviest rain has shifted to the south and southeast of the local area. While the Austin area could see another 1 to 2 inches of rain today into tonight.. those southernmost areas could still receive an additional 2 to 4 inch rainfall today and that could contribute to flash flooding especially where rainfall has been heaviest in the area from San Antonio northward and northeastward toward New Braunfels.

Please remember that streets and roadways are still slick from the continuing
rains so please be cautious and watch for standing water. Rainfall in the Austin area could cause some brief urban and small stream flooding today into this evening.

Clouds are expected to break by tomorrow night with sunshine returning
for Friday through the weekend and into Monday.

Have a good Wednesday..

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement
Prepared by CTECC / UT Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
750am CT – Tuesday / 04  November 2014

… Heavy Rainfall Threat over the Next Few Days …

… NWS Austin-San Antonio has Amended Their Flash Flood Watch Locally to 6pm Tonight to
12 Noon Wednesday … 2 to 4 inches of rain expected locally with isolated totals to 6  inches …

A southeastward moving surface cold front combined with a remnant upper air low pressure area
from the Pacific will combine with increasing amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the
Pacific Ocean to create a wet unsettled weather pattern beginning today across our area and continuing
through mid week. Rainfall could be heavy at times.. especially late tonight and  Wednesday.

Current guidance suggests a good likelihood that most areas will receive between 2 and 4 inches
of rain with some heavier totals to 6  inches possible. Even with the ongoing chronic hydrologic
drought across the area, this will create excessive runoff with the possibility of some flash flooding
where heavier rains occur over relatively short periods of time.

Over the next couple of days, please keep in mind the NWS slogan “turn around, don’t drown.”

In addition, f
requent lightning will accompany thunderstorm activity with this system so we need to
be aware of this hazard as well.

We all need to be weather aware over the 48 hours for these possibilities.

FYI / Severe weather… hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.. are NOT expected with this weather event.

Much cooler temperatures will spread into the area beginning tonight with highs on Wednesday
likely holding in the 50s to lower 60s with lingering precipitation.
Based on current forecasts.. the
threat of heavier rain should end by Wednesday night into Thursday as the cold front passes off further to the

We’re back to sunshine.. a drier and more stable weather pattern by Friday through our upcoming

I will continue to keep you informed.


Updated 1015pm CT – Friday / 31 October 2014

Couldn’t let this one pass….

Courtesy of Mike Smith of AccuWeather Enterprises…

2014.1031.MikeSmith.Screen Shot 2014-10-31 at 2.05.23 PM



Updated 1220pm CT – Wednesday / 29 October 2014

Two years after Sandy, U.S. global weather prediction still inferior to Europe and falling further behind

Folks…. not good news…. our federal government continues to move at a snails’ pace…. and our numerical weather prediction capability continues to fall behind other nations of the world…

This is worth a read…



Updated 730pm CT – Wednesday / 08 October 2014

Pacific Moisture in Texas from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in Mexico from the Pacific… Some Thoughts…

All the talk about the moisture from the remnants of Pacific Ocean basin tropical cyclones across Texas has had me thinking lately… how is this possible?  Rain directly coming from Pacific moisture in our area in Texas??  Read my attached PDF (LINK BELOW) outlining my question and the email response I got from a NWS lead forecaster in Texas (that I respect) in response to my question…



Updated 1033am CT – Friday / 03 October 2014


Fatal lightning strikes reap heavy toll in developing world

People killed by lightnings