Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 02 December 2014

TODAY…. A cloudy sky. High 49. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming easterly by late afternoon.

TONIGHT…. A cloudy sky with patchy fog and drizzle developing. Low 47. Light easterly wind becoming southeasterly 5 to 12 mph after midnight.

WEDNESDAY…. Patchy morning fog and drizzle.. otherwise mostly cloudy and much warmer. High 63. South southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles.. where rainfall occurs, rainfall amounts will average trace amounts. Low 59. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles.. where rainfall occurs, rainfall amounts will average trace amounts. High 69. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles.. where rainfall occurs, rainfall amounts will average trace amounts. Low 60. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 1/10th of an inch. High 70. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 1/10th of an inch. Low 60. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy and not quite as warm with isolated rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 1/10th of an inch. High 67. Southerly wind shifting northeasterly 5 to 12 mph as a cold front passes in the morning.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 1/10th of an inch. Low 56. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 1/10th of an inch. High 65. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 1/10th of an inch. Low 56. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 1/10th of an inch. High 68. South southeasterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 09 December 2014 through Monday / 15 December 2014…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (02 December)…………………………………………… 7:11 am
Sunset this evening (02 December)……………………………………………. 5:30 pm
Sunrise Wednesday (03 December)…………………………………………… 7:12 am
Sunset Wednesday (03 December)……………………………………………. 5:30 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 800am CT – Tuesday / 02 December 2014

…. Unseasonably Cold Air Remains in Place Across the Area ….
…. Warmer Air Returns by Tonight and Tomorrow into Late Week Through the Weekend ….
…. Clouds Persist for South Central Texas with Rain Chances Reappearing ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a surface cold front extends southwestward from eastern Tennessee and northwestern Alabama and central Mississippi into Louisiana and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and into northern Mexico south of Brownsville and then northwestward in Mexico to south of El Paso. High pressure.. behind the front.. is centered over the St. Lawrence River valley southwestward into north Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are north northeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a trough of upper level low pressure area is located from central Canada southward into the northern USA with much of the USA in a rather zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind pattern. A potent and dynamic upper air low pressure system is approaching the west coast of central and northern California. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west northwesterly 20 to 30 mph.

Much colder air.. in a very shallow layer.. continues to hold Texas in its grip. Given the shallowness of the cold air, low level moisture is overrunning the surface based colder air with clouds continuing across the area.

The colder air mass will remain place through today and into tonight becoming dislodged and moved off to the northeast by early tomorrow as a surface warm front moves back north of our area.

Clouds will remain in place.. with perhaps a few breaks in the overcast.. for Wednesday through late week. Given the increasingly moist and slightly more unstable air mass, we could see a few patches of rain or even rain showers for the time period as temperatures rebound back to slightly above seasonal levels.

Another fairly weak cold frontal passage is seen by early Saturday with slightly cooler temperatures into the weekend. Clouds will persist through much of weekend and even into early next week as another low pressure storm system and cold front approaches the area by next Tuesday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through the next seven days with precipitation chances and timing being the uncertainties for late week into the weekend.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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