Updated 800am CT – Monday / 01 December 2014
…. Much Colder Air Spreads Southward Through Texas ….
…. Warmer Air Moves Back into the Area Mid and Late Week Through the Weekend ….
…. Clouds Persist for South Central Texas ….
On this Monday morning…. a surface cold front extends southwestward from middle Tennessee and northern Mississippi into a low pressure area over southeastern Arkansas into east Texas and south central Texas into the southwestern part of Texas then northward through New Mexico. High pressure.. behind the front.. is centered over southeastern South Dakota. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are becoming gusty northerly as the front passes south of the area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a trough of upper level low pressure area is located from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes with much of the USA in a rather zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind pattern. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west northwesterly 25 to 35 mph.
Much colder air continues.. in a very shallow layer.. to make its way southward into Texas as we start the new week. Given the shallowness of the cold air, low level moisture is overrunning the surface based colder air with clouds continuing across the area.
The colder air mass will remain place through tomorrow and tomorrow night before becoming dislodged and moved off to the northeast by early Wednesday as a surface warm front moves back north of our area.
Clouds will remain in place.. with perhaps a few breaks in the overcast.. for Wednesday through late week into the weekend. Given the increasingly moist and slightly more unstable air mass, we could see a few patches of rain or even rain showers for the time period as temperatures rebound back to slightly above seasonal levels.
After this morning’s cold frontal passage, I do not see another cold frontal passage through the balance of the seven day forecast period.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through the next seven days with precipitation chances and timing being the uncertainties for late week into the weekend.
Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel