Updated 800am CT – Tuesday / 02 December 2014
…. Unseasonably Cold Air Remains in Place Across the Area ….
…. Warmer Air Returns by Tonight and Tomorrow into Late Week Through the Weekend ….
…. Clouds Persist for South Central Texas with Rain Chances Reappearing ….
On this Tuesday morning…. a surface cold front extends southwestward from eastern Tennessee and northwestern Alabama and central Mississippi into Louisiana and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and into northern Mexico south of Brownsville and then northwestward in Mexico to south of El Paso. High pressure.. behind the front.. is centered over the St. Lawrence River valley southwestward into north Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are north northeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a trough of upper level low pressure area is located from central Canada southward into the northern USA with much of the USA in a rather zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind pattern. A potent and dynamic upper air low pressure system is approaching the west coast of central and northern California. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west northwesterly 20 to 30 mph.
Much colder air.. in a very shallow layer.. continues to hold Texas in its grip. Given the shallowness of the cold air, low level moisture is overrunning the surface based colder air with clouds continuing across the area.
The colder air mass will remain place through today and into tonight becoming dislodged and moved off to the northeast by early tomorrow as a surface warm front moves back north of our area.
Clouds will remain in place.. with perhaps a few breaks in the overcast.. for Wednesday through late week. Given the increasingly moist and slightly more unstable air mass, we could see a few patches of rain or even rain showers for the time period as temperatures rebound back to slightly above seasonal levels.
Another fairly weak cold frontal passage is seen by early Saturday with slightly cooler temperatures into the weekend. Clouds will persist through much of weekend and even into early next week as another low pressure storm system and cold front approaches the area by next Tuesday.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through the next seven days with precipitation chances and timing being the uncertainties for late week into the weekend.
Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel