Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin/South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

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*** This page will not be updated again until Friday / 20 Feb ***

Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 17 February 2015

TODAY…. Cloudy with isolated patches of light rain.. sleet and snow until about 9am. No snow and ice accumulations. Decreasing clouds by midday then mostly sunny and warmer in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts at any given location. High 50. Northerly winds 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 32. Light northeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Sunshine. High 64. Light wind becoming southwesterly 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 42. Light southwesterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 69. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Thickening clouds becoming mostly cloudy. Low 49. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered patches of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. High 73. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered patches of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Low 55. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered patches of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. High 74. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers with the approach of a cold front after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 53. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more southwesterly after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy.. turning windy and colder as a cold front moves through around daybreak. Scattered patches of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 1/10th inch. High 55. Southwest wind shifting northerly 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and colder with scattered patches of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 39. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy and colder with scattered patches of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 45. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 24 February 2015 through Monday / 02 March 2015…
Temperature… Much Below Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 February)………………………………………….. 7:10 am
Sunset this evening (17 February)……………………………………………. 6:20 pm
Sunrise Wednesday (18 February)…………………………………………… 7:09 am
Sunset Wednesday (18 February)……………………………………………. 6:21 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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*** This page will not be updated again until Friday / 20 Feb ***

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 17 February 2015

…. Clouds Move Out Today ….
…. A Mid and Late Week Warming Trend ….
…. Another Strong Cold Front Due Next Weekend ….

On this Tuesday morning…. chilly surface high pressure.. centered over the Oklahoma and north Texas.. has settled into Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad deep upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from Hudson Bay into Texas and covers much of the lower 48 states. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west southwesterly at 70 to 80 mph.

Surface high pressure has settled south through Texas in the wake of our cold front that moved through the area yesterday morning. As the colder surface air moves in, with the main trough of upper level low pressure still well just to our west, we’re still experiencing a bit of an overrunning pattern with clouds and isolated patches of rain, ice pellets and snow mainly in areas south of Austin. Ground temperatures are quite warm, however, so I do not anticipate any problems.

Skies will clear as the day goes along with chilly temperatures continuing through tonight.

Tomorrow through Thursday, we’ll see plenty of sunshine with a rapid warming trend with afternoon highs back to the 60s and 70s. A weak cold front is slated to try to backdoor its way into Texas from the north northeast Thursday morning but the only effect locally will be to increase/thicken clouds and to introduce some slim rain chances for Thursday night into the weekend.

Another stronger cold front will move southward through the area by about daybreak on Sunday with the best rain chances Saturday night into early Sunday as the front approaches and then moves through the area. Much cooler air will move into the area in the wake of the front on Sunday with some post frontal overrunning expected for Sunday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high today through the remainder of the week and through the upcoming weekend.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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