Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

*** This page will not be updated again until Friday / 20 Feb ***

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 17 February 2015

…. Clouds Move Out Today ….
…. A Mid and Late Week Warming Trend ….
…. Another Strong Cold Front Due Next Weekend ….

On this Tuesday morning…. chilly surface high pressure.. centered over the Oklahoma and north Texas.. has settled into Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad deep upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from Hudson Bay into Texas and covers much of the lower 48 states. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west southwesterly at 70 to 80 mph.

Surface high pressure has settled south through Texas in the wake of our cold front that moved through the area yesterday morning. As the colder surface air moves in, with the main trough of upper level low pressure still well just to our west, we’re still experiencing a bit of an overrunning pattern with clouds and isolated patches of rain, ice pellets and snow mainly in areas south of Austin. Ground temperatures are quite warm, however, so I do not anticipate any problems.

Skies will clear as the day goes along with chilly temperatures continuing through tonight.

Tomorrow through Thursday, we’ll see plenty of sunshine with a rapid warming trend with afternoon highs back to the 60s and 70s. A weak cold front is slated to try to backdoor its way into Texas from the north northeast Thursday morning but the only effect locally will be to increase/thicken clouds and to introduce some slim rain chances for Thursday night into the weekend.

Another stronger cold front will move southward through the area by about daybreak on Sunday with the best rain chances Saturday night into early Sunday as the front approaches and then moves through the area. Much cooler air will move into the area in the wake of the front on Sunday with some post frontal overrunning expected for Sunday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high today through the remainder of the week and through the upcoming weekend.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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