Author: troyk - Page 332 - Troy Kimmel Weather

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 12 May 2017

.. Drier with Plenty of Sun Through the Weekend ..
.. An Unsettled Weather Pattern Developing with Rain Chances Next Week …

On this Friday… a surface low pressure area is over central Arkansas with a cold front extending southwestward into east Texas to onshore along the Texas coast to near Eagle Pass then into northern Mexico and far southwest Texas. Surface high pressure is located behind the front over eastern Colorado and western Kansas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are north northwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a strong northeastward moving upper air low pressure disturbance is over Arkansas. Another eastward moving upper air low pressure disturbance is located along the Oregon and Washington coasts. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are west northwesterly 50 to 60 mph.

After the late afternoon thunderstorms (with some hail in northern and western parts of the Austin/IH35 corridor area) yesterday and isolated thunderstorms in the eastern areas after midnight as the cold front moved through, a drier and more stable weather pattern will prevail into the weekend with abundant sunshine. Nighttime low temperatures will be a bit cooler due to the dryness of the air.

As surface high pressure, in the wake of the front, moves east of the area by early Sunday, southerly surface winds will pick up over the area. Low level moisture will increase over the area with late night and early morning low clouds returning as early as Monday and Tuesday mornings.

By the middle into latter parts of next week, an approaching upper air low pressure and associated cold front will move slowly eastward through the western and southwestern USA parts of next week. I’ll introduce rain chances beginning Wednesday with rain and thunderstorm chances increasing even more by Thursday into Friday. Early guidance, from some of the computer models, suggests the possibility of severe thunderstorms and heavier rain for the latter part of next week for parts of Texas.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 12 May 2017

TODAY…. Sunny and less humid. High 85. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. A clear sky and a little cooler. Low 59. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 87. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 62. Light easterly wind becoming light and variable after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 89. Light winds becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph by midday.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 66. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. High 90. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy early then mostly cloudy after midnight. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 89. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then mostly cloudy after 10pm. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk mainly in the afternoon. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 88. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, at any given location, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 87.Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 19 May 2017 through Thursday / 25 May 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (12 May)……………………………………………. 6:39 am
Sunset this evening (12 May)……………………………………………… 8:16 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (13 May)………………………………………………… 6:38 am
Sunset tomorrow (13 May)…………………………………………………. 8:17 pm

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
205pm CT – Sunday / 28 May 2017

.. Authority NWS/Storm Prediction Center ..

Mesoscale Discussion 0901
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0134 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

   Areas affected...Central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 281834Z - 281930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe weather watch seems probable at some point late
   this afternoon and evening, perhaps as early as 20-21Z.

   DISCUSSION...Objective analysis indicates that insolation within a
   boundary layer characterized by high moisture content (lower/mid 70s
   F surface dew points) is contributing to strong/extreme CAPE on the
   order of 4000+ J/kg across much of the region, including the
   Interstate 35 corridor between San Antonio and Waco.  Mid-level
   inhibition beneath warm elevated mixed layer air does still appear
   considerable, particularly given weak, or at least unclear,
   mid/upper forcing for ascent.  An area of enhanced ascent
   contributing to deepening mid-level based convection near the
   Interstate 20 corridor, west of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, may
   remain displaced to the north of an area of sustained enhanced
   low-level convergence near the Waco area.  This is near the
   intersection of a surface front that extends southwestward into the
   Rio Grande Valley, to the west of Del Rio, and the western flank of
   composite outflow from extensive overnight convection, now advancing
   into the north central Gulf Coast.

   However, the latest Rapid Refresh suggests that additional surface
   heating, coupled with subtle mid-level height falls on the southern
   fringe of the westerlies, may be sufficient to support the
   initiation of thunderstorms as early as 20-21Z.  Once this does
   occur, intensification likely will be very rapid, and deep layer
   shear appears sufficient for the evolution of supercell structures
   with large hail  and perhaps an isolated tornado, in addition to
   strong downbursts accompanied by potentially damaging surface gusts.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/28/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30359938 31149852 31689787 31949702 31599588 30929570
               30419690 29639779 29409830 29329912 30359938

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Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984