Author: troyk - Page 331 - Troy Kimmel Weather

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1245pm CT – Sunday / 28 May 2017

.. A Weak Cold Front Progressing Southward Across Texas ..
.. A Few Strong Thunderstorms Likely this Afternoon into Tonight ..
.. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances, Along with Lightning Risk, Continues into the New Week ..

Hazards Expected and Time Periods (My Confidence) …
…. Larger hail threat – between 2pm and 10pm today and tonight (medium confidence)
…. Strong straight line thunderstorm wind threat – between 2pm and 10pm today (low to medium confidence)
…. Tornado threat – between 2pm and 10pm today (low confidence)
…. Lightning threat – after 2pm today and continuing tonight into Memorial Day (very high confidence)
…. Flood threat – after 5pm through the nighttime hours tonight – mainly urban/small stream (low to medium confidence)

Current NWS Watches / Advisories / Warnings ….
There are no current NWS watches, advisories and/or warnings in effect for our IH35 corridor counties..
Given the “slight” risk outlook area currently over our area, if conditions materialize as
expected, I would anticipate a watch from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center being eventually
issued for parts of our south central Texas area sometime in the 2pm to 10pm time period today.

Weather Discussion ….
At midday on this Sunday.. a cold front is pressing southeastward and is located along a line
from west of Texarkana to just southeast of the DFW metroplex to near Lampasas to Llano
and then to south of Junction.
Ahead of the front, plenty of gulf moisture is combining with strong atmospheric instability
to set the stage for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as the frontal lift increases with
the surface front and an associated upper level low pressure disturbance moving through the area.
The cold front should pass the local area by late this afternoon into early evening tonight with the
threat of stronger thunderstorms decreasing thereafter.
Clouds and rain shower and thunderstorm activity will continue in the post frontal environment
tonight through tomorrow (Memorial Day) as the front weakens and starts to shift back northward
as a warm front. Bottom line, lightning will continue to be a daily hazard for much of the coming week
as a typical late spring weather pattern prevails as weak upper level disturbances move west-to-east
overhead.

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Aviation Weather Information for the
Austin Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS) Aerodrome and Associated Hubs ….
Given the weak cold frontal boundary expected in our area later this afternoon into tonight, scattered
rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, are expected over or
in the vicinity of the KAUS aerodrome this afternoon into tonight with stronger
thunderstorms possible.
The front is expected to pass southeastward to the Texas coastal plains by late tonight into
tomorrow; even so, post frontal rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
locally, with an associated lightning risk, through tomorrow (Memorial Day) through much
of the upcoming week.

Likelihood of Hub Diversions..
DAL/DFW Aerodromes and ZFW Airspace..
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms (50% rain) today decreasing to widely scattered
(20% rain) tonight. Some diversions and ZFW reroutes are possible mainly this afternoon into
the mid evening hours tonight.
HOU/IAH Aerodromes and ZHU Airspace..
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms (30% rain) today increasing to scattered to
numerous (60%-80% rain) late tonight into the early morning hours tomorrow. Although
there will be lull in air traffic by the time the rain shower and thunderstorm chances peak
after midnight tonight, it is likely we’ll see some diversions and ZHU reroutes especially in
the morning hours tomorrow.

Current KAUS Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) – Issued 281735z ..

FTUS44 KEWX 281735
TAFAUS
TAF
KAUS 281735Z 2818/2924 18007KT P6SM BKN035 BKN250
     FM282000 13008KT P6SM VCTS BKN035CB BKN100
     FM282300 03010KT 4SM -TSRA BR OVC025CB
      TEMPO 2900/2902 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA OVC015CB
     FM290400 02010KT 5SM -SHRA BR OVC010
     FM291000 35008KT P6SM OVC008
     FM291700 07007KT P6SM BKN015 BKN120=

Current FAA National Airspace Status

—

CALL TO ACTION:

Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service (see links
below).

Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.

FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS:

I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions or if you have a storm report that I can forward on your behalf
to the National Weather Service, please let me know at [email protected]

GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION LINKS:

NWS/Austin-San Antonio Current Statements/Advisory/Watches/Warnings
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Web Page
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Outlooks)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Severe Weather & Snow)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches)
NWS/Weather Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Heavy Rain & Flooding)
NWS/National Hurricane Center

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 19 May 2017

.. An Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues ..
.. Best Rain Chances Saturday through Saturday Night ..
.. Another Storm System with Rain Chances Monday into Tuesday ..

On this Friday… a surface low pressure area is over southern Kansas with a cold front extending southwestward into western Oklahoma through the southern Texas panhandle and the northern south plains of west Texas then into northeastern New Mexico. A dry line.. separating dry air to the west from moist and tropical air to the east.. extends from its intersection with the cold front over the southeastern Texas panhandle south southwestward into far southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep upper air low pressure trough, or north to south line of low pressure, covers the western 2/3rds of the USA with a strong disturbance embedded within the trough over the four corners region. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are west southwesterly 35 to 45 mph.

The broad upper air low pressure trough, currently located over the western 2/3rds of the USA, has continued to contribute to a more moist and unstable air mass overhead.

We’ll continue to see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms today through tonight.. with the highest rain chances and the strongest thunderstorms remaining to our north, northwest and west.

By tomorrow into early Sunday, the strong upper level low pressure disturbance out west and the trough of low pressure overall will move northeastward into the plains states. This will allow a surface cold front to move southeastward across the IH35 corridor by tomorrow night into the predawn hours Sunday. Abundant atmospheric lift will combine with the rich low level moisture and an unstable atmosphere to produce scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms particularly after mid day tomorrow through the early morning hours on Sunday. Periods of heavier rain are possible over the area.

The cold front will weaken later Sunday through Sunday night along and offshore of the Texas coast with rain chances decreasing (but not disappearing completely) locally as the front pulls up stationary in the Texas coastal waters.

By early Monday and continuing into early Tuesday, another strong upper level low pressure disturbance will approach the area from the west with the front off the Texas coast returning quickly northwestward as a warm front into our area. As the warm, moist and more unstable air mass returns and the low pressure area approaches from the west, I will quickly increase rain shower and thunderstorm chances again by early Monday and continuing into early Tuesday as another cold front sweeps eastward through the area.

As always, a reminder that lightning, associated with any thunderstorms that develop or move into the area over the next few days, will pose a danger. Updated guidance continues to suggests upwards of 1 to 3 inches of rain locally with isolated heavier amounts to over 4 inches over the next four days.

In the wake of the front, skies will partially clear as more stable, slightly cooler and drier air takes hold for Tuesday night and Wednesday into Thursday next week.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 19 May 2017

TODAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 92. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 74. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in the morning becoming more numerous in the afternoon with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain in the morning increasing to 50% in the afternoon; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 88. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/2 to 1 inch. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more south southwesterly after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a weak cold front moves southeastward through the area by sunrise. Rain chances decreasing midday into afternoon with the sky becoming partly to mostly cloudy. A 60% chance of rain before 8am decreasing to 20% by afternoon; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 83. Winds becoming northeasterly 5 to 10 mph as the front passes.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and a little cooler with widely scattered rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average trace amounts. Low 64. Light northeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 84. Light easterly wind becoming south southeasterly by late afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes before 9am. Rain chances decreasing by afternoon. A 60% chance of rain before 9am decreasing to 20% by afternoon; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 84. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming northerly by midday into early afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and a little cooler with widely scattered rain showers before midnight. Decreasing clouds after midnight becoming partly cloudy. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 63. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 80. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 59. Light northeasterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 84. Light winds becoming southeasterly 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 26 May 2017 through Thursday / 01 June 2017…
Temperature… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 May)……………………………………………. 6:35 am
Sunset this evening (18 May)……………………………………………… 8:20 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (19 May)………………………………………………… 6:34 am
Sunset tomorrow (19 May)…………………………………………………. 8:21 pm

Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984