Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 11 May 2017
.. Scattered Rain Showers and Thunderstorms as Front Moves Through Tonight ..
.. Drier and Less Humid with Plenty of Sun Tomorrow Through the Weekend ..
.. An Unsettled Weather Pattern Developing with Rain Chances Next Week …
On this Thursday… a stationary front extends southwestward from northeastern and western Missouri into southeastern Kansas and then into a surface low over western Oklahoma. From the surface low, a cold front extends southward into far southwest Texas west of Del Rio. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are light and variable.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a northeastward moving upper air low pressure disturbance is over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. Another disturbance is located off the Pacific Northwest coast over the eastern Pacific Ocean. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are southwesterly 80 to 90 mph.
Moist and increasingly unstable air continues to stream northward over the area in advance of the upper air low pressure disturbance and the surface cold front. The upper air low pressure area will move east northeastward into the central and southern plains today into tonight with the attendant surface cold front moving from west to east through the area between midnight and 5am tonight/tomorrow morning. With the associated atmospheric lift, we’ll see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over the area. Based on guidance from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center, I am thinking that one or two of the thunderstorms over the area could becoming severe with an associated hail and straightline thunderstorm wind risk. Current guidance from the NWS/Weather Prediction Center and the atmospheric computer models suggest that any thunderstorms that do develop with move eastward pretty quickly with rainfall of 1/4 to 1/2 inch possible locally before daybreak tomorrow. Once the surface winds shift northwesterly with cold frontal passage, rain chances will quickly decrease with skies clearing before daybreak tomorrow.
A drier and more stable weather pattern will prevail tomorrow and through the weekend with abundant sunshine. Nighttime low temperatures will be a bit cooler due to the dryness of the air.
As surface high pressure, in the wake of the front, moves east of the area by early Sunday, southerly surface winds will pick up over the area. Low level moisture will increase over the area with late night and early morning low clouds returning as early as Monday and Tuesday mornings.
By the middle into latter parts of next week, an approaching upper air low pressure and associated cold front will move slowly eastward through the western and southwestern parts of next week. I’ll introduce rain chances beginning Wednesday with rain and thunderstorm chances, it appears, increasing even more by Thursday into Friday.
Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 08 May 2017
TODAY…. Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon, with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 86. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes after midnight. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 67. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more southwesterly and westerly after midnight.
FRIDAY…. Decreasing clouds through sunrise becoming sunny and less humid. High 86. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky and a little cooler. Low 59. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 87. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 62. Light easterly wind becoming light and variable after midnight.
SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 89. Light winds becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph by midday.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 66. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. High 90. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy early then mostly cloudy after midnight. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 89. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then mostly cloudy after 10pm. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk mainly in the afternoon. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 88. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 18 May 2017 through Wednesday / 24 May 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (11 May)……………………………………………. 6:39 am
Sunset this evening (11 May)……………………………………………… 8:15 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (12 May)………………………………………………… 6:39 am
Sunset tomorrow (12 May)…………………………………………………. 8:16 pm