Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 01 February 2022
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… No Weather Threats Expected …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) In the wake of the strong upper air low pressure disturbance yesterday, we’ll see a break in the clouds and rain chances today into tonight.
(2) Another stronger upper level disturbance and associated strong Arctic cold front moves through Texas late tomorrow afternoon. Rain showers are likely as the front approaches and passes morning into the afternoon.
(3) In the wake of the cold front, much colder Arctic air will move southward into Texas. Computer models strongly suggest post frontal precipitation for about 18 to 24 hours after the frontal passage. Given the expected temperature profile, I expect a mix of freezing rain and sleet with light accumulations and impacts along the IH35 corridor by the predawn hours Thursday through most of the day. In addition, with air temperatures in the 20s and lower 30s and gusty northerly wind, expect wind chill temperatures by late tomorrow night into early Saturday morning to be in the single digits and teens. Accordingly, the NWS/Austin-San Antonio has issued a winter storm watch for the Austin metro area and the IH35 corridor counties (Hays, Travis and Williamson) and northwestward from 3am through 6pm Thursday.
(4) As clouds break on Friday into the weekend, well below average temperatures will continue with hard freezes expected in the overnight hours Thursday night as well as Friday and even Saturday night.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting and average 0.50 to 1.00 inch rainfall for our area over the next seven days (most of it tomorrow into Thursday).
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Tuesday / 01 February 2022
… Winter Storm Watch In Effect from 3am to 6pm Thursday …
TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with patchy fog early then becoming partly cloudy. High 70. Light wind becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph.
TONIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Low 55. Light south southeasterly wind.
WEDNESDAY…. Patchy morning fog. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms developing during the morning with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, given a 80% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. Turning windy and much colder as a cold front moves through the area by late afternoon. High 67 before the front passes with temperatures falling into the 40s/50s by late afternoon. Southeasterly wind shifting north northwesterly 15 to 25 mph in the late afternoon with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy, windy and much colder with light rain through 3am then changing to freezing rain and sleet. Local impacts possible with light ice/sleet accumulations. Low 28. Wind chill temperatures in the teens. North northwesterly wind 15 to 25 mph and gusty.
THURSDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cold with periods of freezing rain and sleet. A few snow flakes possible as precipitation tapers off in the afternoon. Local impacts possible with light ice/sleet accumulations. High 32. Wind chill temperatures in the single digits and teens. North northwesterly wind 15 to 25 mph and gusty.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with an area wide hard freeze. Low 19 in outlying low lying areas to near 25 in the city. Wind chill temperatures in the single digits and teens. Northerly wind 15 to 25 mph.
FRIDAY…. Decreasing clouds early becoming partly cloudy and continued unseasonably cold. High 35. Wind chill temperatures in the teens. Northerly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with an area wide hard freeze. Low 17 in outlying low lying areas to near 25 in the city. Wind chill temperatures in the single digits and teens. North northeasterly wind 10 to 20 mph.
SATURDAY…. Increasing clouds becoming partly to mostly cloudy by late afternoon. Continued unseasonably cold. High 40. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 27. Light northeasterly wind.
SUNDAY…. Decreasing clouds early becoming mostly sunny and a bit warmer. High 49.
Light wind becoming east southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 29. Light east southeasterly wind.
MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 51. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 08 February 2022 through Monday / 14 February 2022
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (01 February)…………………………………… 7:21 am
Sunset this evening (01 February)…………………………………….. 6:08 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (02 February)……………………………………….. 7:21 am
Sunset tomorrow (02 February)………………………………………… 6:09 pm