Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 31 January 2022
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms Today into Tonight …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) A strong upper air low pressure disturbance is passing west-to-east over our area with a more unsettled weather pattern in place with rain and thunderstorm chances continuing through early tonight. Periods of heavier rain possible.
(2) After a break in the clouds and rain chances beginning tomorrow, another stronger upper level disturbance and associated strong cold front moves through Texas by midday Wednesday. Rain showers are likely as the front approaches and passes on Wednesday.
(3) In the wake of the cold front, much colder modified Arctic air will move southward into Texas. Computer models strongly suggest post frontal precipitation for about 24 hours after the front. Given the expected temperature profile, I expect a mix of freezing rain and sleet with potential impacts along the IH35 corridor late Wednesday night into Thursday.
(4) As clouds break on Friday into the weekend, well below average temperatures will continue with hard freezes expected in the overnight hours Thursday night as well as Friday and even Saturday night.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting 1.00 to 3.00 inches rainfall for our area over the next seven days (most of it today).
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Monday / 31 January 2022
TODAY…. Cloudy. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. Periods of heavy rain. Rainfall, given a greater than 90%chance of rain at any given location, will average 1.00 to 3.00 inches. High 59. Light wind becoming light northeasterly.
TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 9pm. Patchy fog developing after midnight. Rainfall, given a 90% chance of rain mainly before 9pm at any given location, will average an additional 0.25 inch. Low 52. Light northeasterly wind.
TUESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with patchy fog early then becoming partly cloudy. High 72. Light wind becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 54. Light south southeasterly wind.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, given a 80% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch. Turning windy and much colder as a cold front moves through the area by midday into early afternoon. High 68 before the front passes with temperatures falling into the 40s by late afternoon. Southeasterly wind shifting north northwesterly 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy, windy and much colder with light rain through 11pm then changing to freezing rain and sleet. Local impacts possible. Low 29. North northwesterly wind 15 to 25 mph and gusty.
THURSDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cold with periods of freezing rain and sleet mainly before 1pm. A few snow flakes possible. Local impacts possible. High 32. North northwesterly wind 15 to 25 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with an area wide hard freeze. Low 18 in outlying low lying areas to near 27 in the city. Northerly wind 10 to 20 mph.
FRIDAY…. Decreasing clouds early becoming partly cloudy and continued unseasonably cold. High 35. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with an area wide hard freeze. Low 17 in outlying low lying areas to near 26 in the city. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY…. Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy by late afternoon. Continued unseasonably cold. High 43. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 26. Light northeasterly wind.
SUNDAY…. Decreasing clouds early becoming mostly sunny and a bit warmer. High 52.
Light wind becoming east southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 07 February 2022 through Sunday / 13 February 2022
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (31 January)……………………………………. 7:22 am
Sunset this evening (31 January)……………………………………… 6:07 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (01 February)……………………………………….. 7:21 am
Sunset tomorrow (01 February)………………………………………… 6:08 pm