Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Wednesday / 02 February 2022
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… No Weather Threats Expected …
… Winter Storm WARNING Goes into Effect at 3am Tomorrow …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) Another strong upper level disturbance and associated strong Arctic cold front moves through Texas today into tonight. Rain showers are likely as the cold front approaches and passes later this afternoon.
(2) In the wake of the cold front, much colder Arctic air will move southward into Texas. As the result of a strong upper air low pressure disturbance crossing overhead tonight into tomorrow, we should see post frontal precipitation for about 12 to 18 hours after the frontal passage. Given the expected temperature profile, rain will continue into tonight before a mix of freezing rain and sleet begins about 3am tomorrow with accumulations and impacts along the IH35 corridor by the predawn hours Thursday and continuing through most of the day. In addition, with air temperatures in the 20s and lower 30s and gusty northerly wind, expect wind chill temperatures by late tomorrow night into early Saturday morning to be in the single digits and teens. Accordingly, the NWS/Austin-San Antonio has issued a winter storm WARNING for the Austin metro area and the IH35 corridor counties (Hays, Travis and Williamson) from 3am through 6pm tomorrow.
(3) As clouds break on Friday into the weekend, well below average temperatures will continue with hard freezes expected in the overnight hours Thursday night as well as Friday and through the weekend and early next week.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting and average 0.25 to 0.50 inch rainfall for our area over the next seven days.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Wednesday / 02 February 2022
… Winter Storm Warning In Effect from 3am to 6pm Thursday …
TODAY…. Patchy morning fog. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms developing by afternoon with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, given a 80% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. Turning windy and much colder as a cold front moves through the area by late afternoon. High 57 before the front passes with temperatures falling to around 50 by late afternoon. Light wind shifting northerly 15 to 25 mph by late afternoon with higher gusts.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy, windy and much colder with light rain through 3am then changing to freezing rain and sleet. Local impacts possible with ice/sleet accumulations. Low 28. Wind chill temperatures in the teens. North northwesterly wind 15 to 25 mph and gusty.
THURSDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cold with periods of freezing rain and sleet. A few snow flakes possible as precipitation tapers off in the afternoon. Local impacts possible with ice/sleet accumulations. High 32. Wind chill temperatures in the single digits and teens. North northwesterly wind 15 to 25 mph and gusty.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with an area wide hard freeze. Low 19 in outlying low lying areas to near 25 in the city. Wind chill temperatures in the single digits and teens. Northerly wind 15 to 25 mph.
FRIDAY…. Decreasing clouds early becoming partly cloudy and continued unseasonably cold. High 35. Wind chill temperatures in the teens. Northerly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with an area wide hard freeze. Low 17 in outlying low lying areas to near 24 in the city. Wind chill temperatures in the single digits and teens. North northeasterly wind 10 to 20 mph.
SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. Continued unseasonably cold. High 40. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 25. Light northeasterly wind.
SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 49. Light wind becoming northerly 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 29. Light wind.
MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 51. Light wind.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 31. Light wind.
TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 58. Light wind becoming light southeasterly by afternoon.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 09 February 2022 through Tuesday / 15 February 2022
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (02 February)…………………………………… 7:21 am
Sunset this evening (02 February)…………………………………….. 6:09 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (03 February)……………………………………….. 7:20 am
Sunset tomorrow (03 February)………………………………………… 6:10 pm