Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 23 April 2021
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… Lightning Risk with Thunderstorms Through Tonight …
… Severe Thunderstorm Risk with Larger Hail and Damaging
Straight Line Thunderstorm Winds Into This Evening …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) An approaching strong upper level low pressure disturbance and associated cold front will surge east southeastward over the area later today into tonight. As it moves across the area, we’ll see increased and dynamic atmospheric lift combining with increased atmospheric instability and the available moisture to produce scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms some of which be strong with a hail and straight line thunderstorm wind threat. Once the front passes by late tonight, precipitation will taper off quickly with drier and more stable air overspreading the area.
(2) A pleasant weekend with a mix of clouds and sunshine is in store for the area tomorrow and Sunday and into early next week with temperatures near to slightly above seasonal averages.
(3) As high pressure moves east of the area by Monday and south southeasterly surface winds pick up, low level moisture and clouds will be on the increase once again.
(4) Another cold front will move across the area by next Wednesday morning with an associated chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Once the front passes, drier and slightly cooler air will take hold locally as high pressure settles southeastward into the area by Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is forecasting around 1.00″ to 2.00″ rainfall for the IH35 corridor.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to very high confidence
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Fridaty / 23 April 2021
TODAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat in the morning then increasing to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. A few thunderstorms may be severe in the afternoon with a large hail and damaging straight line wind threat. A 50% chance of rain in the morning increasing to 90% by afternoon; rainfall will average 0.25″ to 0.50″. High 79. South southeasterly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 7pm as a cold front approaches and moves through the area before midnight. Rain chances decreasing after 8pm. A 70% chance of rain before 8pm decreasing to 20% after midnight; rainfall will average an additional 0.25″. Low 58. Southerly wind 10 to 18 mph becoming more southwesterly late before shifting north northwesterly after midnight.
SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. Breezy and less humid. High 84. Northerly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 51. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph diminishing late.
SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 86. Light east northeasterly wind.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 59. Light wind.
MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 88. Light wind becoming southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 65. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 88. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before midnight then becoming scattered after midnight with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain before midnight increasing to 40% after midnight; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.25″. Low 66. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 10am with an associated lightning threat as a cold front passes eastward through the area. A 40% chance of rain in the morning; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.25″ or less. Decreasing clouds late morning becoming mostly sunny and less humid in the afternoon. High 84. Southerly wind shifting west northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 57. Northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 80. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 30 April 2021 through Thursday / 06 May 2021…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (23 April)……………………………………….. 6:56 am
Sunset this evening (23 April)…………………………………………. 8:04 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (24 April)……………………………………………. 6:55 am
Sunset tomorrow (24 April)…………………………………………….. 8:05 pm