Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 18 May 2021
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… Periods of Heavy Rain Later Today through Tonight …
… Large Hail, Damaging Straight Line Thunderstorm Wind
and A Few Tornadoes Possible Later Today Through Tonight …
… Dangerous Lightning Expected with Any Thunderstorms Today through Tonight …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) The strong upper level low has moved east southeastward to along the Arizona/New Mexico border near the four corners region. In its counterclockwise motion, it is ejecting a series of upper air disturbances which will product dynamic atmospheric lift that will combine with abundant atmospheric moisture and instability to produce waves of rain showers and thunderstorms over the coming days. In addition to the possibility of heavy rain, the NWS/Storm Prediction Center has us in the “slight” risk (category 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms today and tonight.
South central Texas forecast rainfall amounts over the next seven days, as predicted by the NWS/Weather Prediction Center, is now expected to be in the 6 to 8 inch range with heavier totals possible. Please be aware that these types of rainfall amounts, if realized and where they occur, would result in dangerous flooding.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High confidence
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Troy KImmel’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Monday / 17 May 2021
…. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1PM THURSDAY ….
TODAY…. Cloudy with a few rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat this morning becoming more numerous/widespread by late afternoon. Some storms may be severe with a large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind threat. Periods of heavier rain late in the afternoon may produce flooding. A 50% chance of rain this morning increasing to 90% by late in the day; rainfall will average 0.50″ to 1.00″. High 81. South southeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Some storms may be severe with a large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind threat. Periods of heavier rain may produce flooding. A 80% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1.00″ to 2.00″ with isolated heavier totals. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Periods of heavier rain will result in flooding. A 90% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1.00″ to 2.00″ with isolated higher totals. High 78. South southeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.50 to 1.00″. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
THURSDAY…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Periods of heavier rain. A 70% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.50″ to 1.00″. High 78. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
FRIDAY…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 70% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.50″ to 1.00″. High 80. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat decreasing. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY…. Cloudy with scattered morning then numerous afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 70% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.50″. High 81. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat decreasing. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SUNDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. High 82. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 69. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. High 84. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 25 May 2021 through Monday / 31 May 2021…
Temperatures… Near Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 May)………………………………………… 6:35 am
Sunset this evening (18 May)………………………………………….. 8:20 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (19 May)…………………………………………….. 6:35 am
Sunset tomorrow (19 May)……………………………………………… 8:21 pm