Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues Through Tomorrow Before a Weather Pattern Change and A Passing Cold Front and Storm Chances Saturday into Sunday and Again for Tuesday into Wednesday of Next Week (Th/17Apr2025)

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…

Th/17Apr… No weather hazards expected..
Fr/18Apr… No weather hazards expected..
Sa/19Apr… A lightning threat with any thunderstorms..
Su/20Apr… A lightning threat with any thunderstorms..
Mo/21Apr… No weather hazards expected..
Tu/22Apr… A lightning threat with any thunderstorms..
We/23Apr… A lightning threat with any thunderstorms..

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A dry and stable weather pattern is expected to continue into tomorrow.

(2) The latest guidance continues to show that a southeastward moving weakening cold front will make its way into Texas by Saturday into Saturday night as a series of stronger upper level low pressure disturbances moves eastward from the Pacific Ocean into the southwestern USA before being ejected northeastward over the plains states. As a result, we will see a better chance of rain and thunderstorms by Saturday into Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front passes in the morning. Following the front, we’ll see sunshine with a little cooler temperatures and lower humidity on Monday.

(3) The Monday cold front will return quickly northward on Tuesday morning with a rapid low level moisture return ahead of another series of upper level low pressure disturbances. As these disturbances move overhead, they will produce atmospheric lift in an increasingly humid and unstable air mass and this will result in renewed rain and storm chances for Tuesday into Wedneday night into Thursday.

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, my forecast is for 1.50 inch of rainfall, on average, for our IH35 corridor counties through the 7 day forecast period which ends in the early morning hours next Thursday.

MY LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A very high confidence forecast through tomorrow then falling back to high confidence forecast for Saturday through Monday followed by a medium to high confidence forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and the IH35 Corridor
Updated Thursday / 17 April 2025

TODAY (17Apr)…. Partly cloudy. High 90. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.

FRIDAY (18Apr)…. Morning low clouds then partly cloudy. High 91. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.

SATURDAY (19Apr)…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.10 inch. High 88. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.

SUNDAY (20Apr)…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before noon as a weak cold front passes. Becoming partly cloudy and a little less humid in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location before noon, will average less than 0.25 inch. High 83. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts shifting northerly in the morning.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly clear and a little cooler. Low 58. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoing light late.

MONDAY (21Apr)…. Mostly sunny and less humid. High 86. Light wind becoming east northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph by midday and afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 64. Light easterly wind becoming more southeasterly after midnight.

TUESDAY (22Apr)…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.25 inch. High 86. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch. Low 66. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY (23Apr)…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.50 inch. High 84. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 24 April 2025 through Wednesday / 30 April 2025
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday/11Apr2025)
Valid Saturday / 19 April 2025 through Friday / 02 May 2025
Temperatures… Better Chances of Warmer Than Normal
Precipitation… Equal Chances of Wetter/Dryer than Normal

AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR SUNRISE/SUNSET TIMES…..
Today (Th/17Apr)………………………………………. 7:01 am / 8:00 pm (+ 2 minutes)
Tomorrow (Fr/18Apr)…………………………………. 7:00 am / 8:01 pm (+ 2 minutes)

tk