Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Month: April 2015

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 15 April 2015

TODAY…. Partly cloudy with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 81. East northeasterly wind becoming south southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph by midday.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. mainly after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 69. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with frequent deadly lightning. Some thunderstorms may be severe with larger hail and damaging thunderstorm winds. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 79. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with frequent deadly lightning. Some thunderstorms may be severe with larger hail and damaging thunderstorm winds. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 69. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the area. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 76. Southwesterly wind shifting northerly at 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 65. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 78. Light east northeasterly wind becoming southeasterly 5 to 12 mph by late afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 66. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 79. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 67. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 80. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 69. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 82. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph by afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 22 April 2015 through Tuesday / 28 April 2015…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (15 April)…………………………………………. 7:04 am
Sunset this evening (15 April)…………………………………………… 7:59 pm
Sunrise Thursday (16 April)……………………………………………… 7:02 am
Sunset Thursday (16 April)………………………………………………. 7:59 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 15 April 2015

.. Another Cold Frontal Passage with Rain Chances Thursday into Friday ..

On this Wednesday…. a weakening stationary front extends southwestward from northern Mississippi into southwest Louisiana then just offshore of the Texas coast to south of Brownsville. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are returning back south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an strong upper air disturbance is centered southeast of the Great Salt Lake. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west southwesterly at 35 to 45 mph.

The current relatively quiet weather pattern, less the slim rain chances, will continue through tonight.

By tomorrow into Friday, another southeastward moving surface cold front, combined with passing disturbances associated with the counterclockwise rotating strong upper air disturbance out west, will result in increased/thickened cloud cover and an increase in rain chances. The cold front is forecast to cross our local area during the day Friday. The latest computer, manual and NWS guidance suggests anywhere from 1 to 1 1/2 inches of rain for the local area along with a perhaps bigger risk.. the risk for severe thunderstorms with strong thunderstorm wind gusts and larger hail being the main risk along with the always present deadly cloud-to-ground lightning risk with thunderstorms. The latest Storm Prediction Center outlook for tomorrow mentions an enhanced threat of severe weather.. including the possibility of a few tornadoes.. to our south and southeast toward the Texas coast.

Even with the front passing through the area on Friday, the rain chances may linger into the weekend with this slowly passing upper level storm system.

A drier and more stable weather pattern looks to develop by Sunday into Monday with temperatures near seasonal averages. Another weak cold front looks to approach the area from the north by late Tuesday into early Wednesday with minimal rain and thunderstorms chances.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel