Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 02 April 2015

.. Warmer Than Average Temperatures Today ..
.. A Cold Front Moves Through Friday with an Overrunning Pattern for the Weekend ..

On this Thursday…. surface high pressure is just off the eastern seaboard of the USA with a southeasterly moving cold front which extends from a low over southeastern Iowa into southeastern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. The front continues westward across the Texas panhandle and north New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is situated from Idaho south southwestward into California. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west northwesterly at 20 to 30 mph.

Morning low clouds give way to a partly cloudy sky and above average afternoon temperatures on this Thursday.

By tomorrow, a stronger cold front will cross the area in the afternoon hours with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms possible. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has posted a “marginal” risk of severe thunderstorms for the afternoon hours tomorrow as the front moves through. The latest NWS national rainfall guidance suggests upwards of 1/4 to 1/2 inches of rain from this passing weather system.

Once the cooler surface based air moves in, an overrunning weather pattern where moisture runs back over the top of the cooler surface air producing clouds and rain chances Friday night through Saturday into Sunday. Daytime high temperatures will remain in the 60s to near 70 for the weekend with clouds prevailing.

Temperatures will warm with clouds breaking for the early part of next week with another cold front is due by the middle part of next week with rain chances increasing once again.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high today and tonight. With associated precipitation chances, my forecast confidence falls back to high tomorrow with timing and amounts along with the possibility of a few strong thunderstorms being the issues. My confidence goes back to high to very high Friday night through the weekend and into early next week with the forecast overrunning pattern (rainfall amounts and timing).

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 1100am CT – Wednesday / 01 April 2015

We’re seeing better chance of thunderstorms as a upper air low pressure area over the northern Mexico moves eastward through Texas as it weakens. This mid week round of rain showers and thunderstorms will produce upwards of 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain. Rain chances will decrease by later tonight with a mostly sunny sky and warmer temperatures returning Thursday.

A stronger cold front will cross the area on Friday by midday into early afternoon with relatively slim rain chances Friday.. Friday night and into and through our upcoming weekend as a Cooler than average and wet overrunning weather pattern becomes established across our area.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high today and tonight with precipitation timing and amounts still bbeing a little uncertain. My confidence goes back to very high tomorrow before falling back to medium to high for Friday and through next weekend with the associated cold front and forecast overrunning pattern.