Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 15 April 2015

.. Another Cold Frontal Passage with Rain Chances Thursday into Friday ..

On this Wednesday…. a weakening stationary front extends southwestward from northern Mississippi into southwest Louisiana then just offshore of the Texas coast to south of Brownsville. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are returning back south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an strong upper air disturbance is centered southeast of the Great Salt Lake. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west southwesterly at 35 to 45 mph.

The current relatively quiet weather pattern, less the slim rain chances, will continue through tonight.

By tomorrow into Friday, another southeastward moving surface cold front, combined with passing disturbances associated with the counterclockwise rotating strong upper air disturbance out west, will result in increased/thickened cloud cover and an increase in rain chances. The cold front is forecast to cross our local area during the day Friday. The latest computer, manual and NWS guidance suggests anywhere from 1 to 1 1/2 inches of rain for the local area along with a perhaps bigger risk.. the risk for severe thunderstorms with strong thunderstorm wind gusts and larger hail being the main risk along with the always present deadly cloud-to-ground lightning risk with thunderstorms. The latest Storm Prediction Center outlook for tomorrow mentions an enhanced threat of severe weather.. including the possibility of a few tornadoes.. to our south and southeast toward the Texas coast.

Even with the front passing through the area on Friday, the rain chances may linger into the weekend with this slowly passing upper level storm system.

A drier and more stable weather pattern looks to develop by Sunday into Monday with temperatures near seasonal averages. Another weak cold front looks to approach the area from the north by late Tuesday into early Wednesday with minimal rain and thunderstorms chances.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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