Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Month: April 2015

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 17 April 2015

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe with large hail 1″ in diameter or more.. damaging thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or higher as well as frequent deadly lightning. A 60% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 3/4 to 1 1/4 inch. High 78. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms.. mainly before 10pm.. may be severe with large hail 1″ in diameter or more.. damaging thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or higher as well as frequent deadly lightning. A 50% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 68. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be severe with large hail 1″ in diameter or more.. damaging thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or higher as well as frequent deadly lightning. A 50% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 77. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more variable in the afternoon as a weak cold front moves into the area and weakens.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 40% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. Low 67. Light wind becoming more south southeasterly after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy as a cold front passes by late afternoon. High 81. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting northerly by late afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and cooler. Low 59. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 78. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 67. Light northeasterly wind becoming more easterly after midnight.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. High 81. Easterly wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph by afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 69. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 78. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 78. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 24 April 2015 through Thursday / 30 April 2015…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 April)…………………………………………. 7:01 am
Sunset this evening (17 April)…………………………………………… 8:00 pm
Sunrise Saturday (18 April)………………………………………………. 7:00 am
Sunset Saturday (18 April)……………………………………………….. 8:01 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 915am CT – Friday / 17 April 2015

.. Multi Day Severe Thunderstorm Risk ..
.. Rain Chances Continue into the Weekend ..
.. Several Inches of Rain Possible ..

On this Friday…. a surface cold front extends a surface low over southeastern Colorado into west Texas and then into northern Mexico south of the Texas Big Bend. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an strong counterclockwise rotating upper air low pressure disturbance is centered over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 20 to 30 mph.

A moist southerly surface wind flow continues over the area.

After a stormy mid and late afternoon yesterday over the southern and eastern parts of our area, we’ve got the eastward moving surface cold front out west, combined with passing upper air disturbances associated with the counterclockwise rotating strong disturbance out west, to result in additional rain and severe weather chances today into tonight and even tomorrow. This cold front is forecast only to move slowly eastward and extend rain chances well into the weekend. and now not expected through the area until Saturday. The NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests anywhere from 1/2 inch to 2 inch rainfall totals between now and daybreak Sunday. As we saw yesterday.. the biggest weather risk may be for severe thunderstorms with strong thunderstorm wind gusts at or above 58 mph and large hail above 1″ in diameter along with the always present deadly cloud-to-ground lightning risk. The latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center outlook for today into tonight mentions an enhanced threat of severe weather.. including the possibility of a few tornadoes.. to our immediate and distant south toward the Texas coast and dep south Texas.

Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible again tomorrow into tomorrow night with all of our area in a “slight” to “enhanced” severe thunderstorm risk area.

A drier and more stable weather pattern looks to develop by Sunday into Monday with temperatures near seasonal averages.

Another weak cold front looks to approach the area from the north by late Tuesday into early Wednesday with rain and thunderstorms chances returning to the forecast.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel