Updated 915am CT – Friday / 17 April 2015
.. Multi Day Severe Thunderstorm Risk ..
.. Rain Chances Continue into the Weekend ..
.. Several Inches of Rain Possible ..
On this Friday…. a surface cold front extends a surface low over southeastern Colorado into west Texas and then into northern Mexico south of the Texas Big Bend. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an strong counterclockwise rotating upper air low pressure disturbance is centered over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 20 to 30 mph.
A moist southerly surface wind flow continues over the area.
After a stormy mid and late afternoon yesterday over the southern and eastern parts of our area, we’ve got the eastward moving surface cold front out west, combined with passing upper air disturbances associated with the counterclockwise rotating strong disturbance out west, to result in additional rain and severe weather chances today into tonight and even tomorrow. This cold front is forecast only to move slowly eastward and extend rain chances well into the weekend. and now not expected through the area until Saturday. The NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests anywhere from 1/2 inch to 2 inch rainfall totals between now and daybreak Sunday. As we saw yesterday.. the biggest weather risk may be for severe thunderstorms with strong thunderstorm wind gusts at or above 58 mph and large hail above 1″ in diameter along with the always present deadly cloud-to-ground lightning risk. The latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center outlook for today into tonight mentions an enhanced threat of severe weather.. including the possibility of a few tornadoes.. to our immediate and distant south toward the Texas coast and dep south Texas.
Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible again tomorrow into tomorrow night with all of our area in a “slight” to “enhanced” severe thunderstorm risk area.
A drier and more stable weather pattern looks to develop by Sunday into Monday with temperatures near seasonal averages.
Another weak cold front looks to approach the area from the north by late Tuesday into early Wednesday with rain and thunderstorms chances returning to the forecast.
Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel