Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Month: June 2014

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 9 June 2014

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with some of the afternoon thunderstorms possibly severe with hail greater than 1 inch in diameter and straight line thunderstorm winds gusts 58 mph or higher. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 40% chance of rain, will average 1/2 to 1 inch. High 90. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming variable around precipitation.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered evening rain showers and thunderstorms with some of the thunderstorms possibly severe with hail greater than 1 inch in diameter and straight line thunderstorm winds gusts 58 mph or higher. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 30% chance of rain, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 69. Winds becoming light northerly as a weak cold front passes.

TUESDAY…. Brief morning clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 91. Light northeasterly wind becoming southeasterly by late afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with some low clouds developing after midnight. Low 70. Light southeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 91. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early.. then low clouds developing after 11pm. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 92. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. then low clouds developing after 10pm. Low 73. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 93. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. then low clouds developing after 10pm. Low 74. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 93. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. then low clouds developing after 10pm. Low 74. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 94. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 16 June 2014 through Sunday / 22 June 2014…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (9 June)……………………………………….. 6:29 am
Sunset this evening (9 June)………………………………………… 8:32 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (10 June)…………………………………………… 6:29 am
Sunset Tuesday (10 June)……………………………………………. 8:32 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CT – Monday / 9 June 2014

…. Weakening Cold Front Moving Southeastward into Texas ….
…. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Today into Tonight ….
…. Stable / Dry Weather Pattern Returns Tomorrow Through the Remainder of the Week ….

On this Monday morning…. a weakening cold front extends from a surface low pressure area over central Oklahoma southwestward into north Texas and then into west Texas south of San Angelo westward to far west Texas around El Paso. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong counter clockwise rotating upper low pressure area is over western Kansas and is diving east southeasterly. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are westerly at 25 to 35 mph.

With a passing upper air low pressure area.. to our north.. and a weakening surface cold front moving southeastward through Texas, our atmosphere has become more unstable. A band of rain showers and thunderstorms is moving southeastward through the IH35 corridor this morning. Gusty winds along with brief heavy rains and lightning will accompany the line as it passes late morning into midday today.

In the wake of the precipitation, our atmosphere will temporarily become more stable with clouds breaking midday into early afternoon. As the atmosphere heats up with the weakening front in the area by afternoon, another round of rain showers and thunderstorms is possible with the possibility of severe weather.. the highest risk being larger hail and damaging straight line thunderstorm winds. NWS guidance suggests that we may see upwards of 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches of rain over parts of the area today into tonight but this should largely be beneficial and shouldn’t cause much of a problem other than some brief urban / small stream / low water crossing issues.

The thunderstorm threat will end by later tonight with clouds breaking.

Upper air high pressure will rebuild across the area in the wake of the currently passing upper air low pressure disturbance beginning tonight and continuing tomorrow through the remainder of the week and through next weekend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium today into tonight (exact rainfall amounts and the coverage and exact location of the secondary thunderstorms later today into tonight) being my concerns. Tomorrow through the remainder of the week and through the upcoming weekend, my forecast confidence returns to high to very high.

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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