Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Special Briefing….

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #4 – FINAL STATEMENT
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (
950pm CT – Monday / 9 June 2014

…. Severe Weather Risk Decreasing ….
…. A Slim Chance of Thunderstorms the Rest of the Night ….

The latest outlook from the NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman OK has removed
the “slight” severe thunderstorm risk area from Texas. They mention of the possibility of
sub-severe hail and gusty winds in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms for the overnight
hours.. mainly south of the Austin metro area.

With the loss of daytime heating, I feel as though the threat of thunderstorms.. and the
possibility of severe thunderstorms.. has greatly decreased. I will continue to monitor this
situation however I plan on this being my final statement on this weather situation.


Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #3
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (
614pm CT – Monday / 9 June 2014

…. New SPC Mesoscale Discussion …


Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are developing from east of Waco..
to east of Temple.. to Georgetown.. as well as from ABIA to near San Marcos.

Continuing to monitor… tk

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (
350pm CT – Monday / 9 June 2014

…. NWS Storm Prediction Center Issues a Mesoscale Discussion for the
Area South through Southwest of the Austin Metro Area ….
…. Probability of SPC Watch Issuance… 40 Percent ….


I’m continuing to monitor.. tk

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #1
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (
115pm CT – Monday / 9 June 2014

.. Morning Rainfall Totals ..

As of 1pm..

…here are the airport/NWS Coop rainfall totals from the last six hours…
KAUS/Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport….  0.09″
KATT/Austin City (Camp Mabry)…. 0.45″
AGHT2/Austin Great Hills…. 0.50″

…here are the heaviest Travis County rainfall totals from the
LCRA Hydromet (…
Pflugerville 3SSE….. 1.22″
Cedar Park 3SSW….. 0.96″
Jollyville 2SW….. 0.82″

…here is one special rainfall report made by CoCoRaHS observers
in our area…
Georgetown 1.3 WNW….. 0.96″

There is still a threat of thunderstorm redevelopment later this afternoon
to our northwest and west… with the possibility of larger hail and damaging
straightline thunderstorm winds with the stronger thunderstorms as they
move across the area late this afternoon into tonight…

The NWS/Storm Prediction Center has shifted the “slight” risk area more
east southeastward. Here in the Austin/Travis County area we’re now in the
more northwestern edge of the risk area.

Otherwise, no big changes in my earlier discussion… continuing to monitor.


Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Special Weather Briefing
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (
815am CT – Monday / 9 June 2014

…. “Slight” Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Today into Tonight ….
…. Main Risks: Larger Hail and Damaging Straight Line Thunderstorm Wind ….

…. Synoptic / Forecast Discussion ….
Early this Monday morning… a surface low pressure area is over central Oklahoma
with a weakening cold front extending southward into north Texas then west southwestward
into west Texas south of San Angelo then into far west Texas. In the upper levels of the
atmosphere, a strong counter clockwise rotating upper level low pressure storm system is
over western Kansas and is diving east southeastward.

Today into tonight.. the weakening cold front will combine with the east southeastward
moving upper air disturbance to produce abundant atmospheric lift and atmospheric instability.
The initial line of thunderstorms.. rapidly moving southeastward.. will impact the area later
this morning with gusty winds.. brief beneficial rains along with some lightning. In the wake
of the thunderstorms, the atmosphere will become temporarily more stable.

By this afternoon, in the wake of that line of thunderstorms, the clouds will break and with
daytime heating, the atmosphere will destabilize quickly and the front itself will contribute
atmospheric lift  to produce another round of thunderstorms. Some of these afternoon into
evening thunderstorms may become severe with larger hail and damaging straight line winds.

The threat of thunderstorms will end later tonight with the atmosphere becoming more stable
for tomorrow and through the remainder of the week and through the weekend.

….  Flood Potential ….
Current NWS flash flood guidance suggests that 3.0 inches of rain would be required in a
one hour period… 3.9 inches for a three hour period.. and 5.1 inches in a six hour period to
initiate flash flooding in Travis County.  Obviously,  the urban area of the Austin metro area
would lower these numbers a bit…  but current NWS rainfall guidance today into tonight of
between  1/2 to 1 1/2  inches suggests that flooding problems should remain at a minimum.
In the city, urban and small stream flooding is possible with some impact to low water crossings
at the more  flood prone crossings. Remember the NWS slogan , “Turn Around – Don’t Drown”
and use common sense and we’ll be in good shape with this mostly beneficial rainfall.

…. ABIA Interests ….
Already this morning, the DAL/DFW aerodromes have been affected by ground stops/arrival-
departure delays as a result of this line of thunderstorms.  As the initial line of thunderstorms
affects the ABIA aerodrome later this morning,  I expect that the NWS/Austin-San Antonio
will find it necessary to issue “Airport Weather Warnings” as a result of the lightning threat.
Afternoon into nighttime thunderstorm redevelopment  may once again require the issuance
of the “Airport Weather Warnings” as a result of lightning, hail and strong wind threats.

I’ll continue to monitor this threat today… tk