Updated 845am CT – Monday / 9 June 2014
…. Weakening Cold Front Moving Southeastward into Texas ….
…. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Today into Tonight ….
…. Stable / Dry Weather Pattern Returns Tomorrow Through the Remainder of the Week ….
On this Monday morning…. a weakening cold front extends from a surface low pressure area over central Oklahoma southwestward into north Texas and then into west Texas south of San Angelo westward to far west Texas around El Paso. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong counter clockwise rotating upper low pressure area is over western Kansas and is diving east southeasterly. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are westerly at 25 to 35 mph.
With a passing upper air low pressure area.. to our north.. and a weakening surface cold front moving southeastward through Texas, our atmosphere has become more unstable. A band of rain showers and thunderstorms is moving southeastward through the IH35 corridor this morning. Gusty winds along with brief heavy rains and lightning will accompany the line as it passes late morning into midday today.
In the wake of the precipitation, our atmosphere will temporarily become more stable with clouds breaking midday into early afternoon. As the atmosphere heats up with the weakening front in the area by afternoon, another round of rain showers and thunderstorms is possible with the possibility of severe weather.. the highest risk being larger hail and damaging straight line thunderstorm winds. NWS guidance suggests that we may see upwards of 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches of rain over parts of the area today into tonight but this should largely be beneficial and shouldn’t cause much of a problem other than some brief urban / small stream / low water crossing issues.
The thunderstorm threat will end by later tonight with clouds breaking.
Upper air high pressure will rebuild across the area in the wake of the currently passing upper air low pressure disturbance beginning tonight and continuing tomorrow through the remainder of the week and through next weekend.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium today into tonight (exact rainfall amounts and the coverage and exact location of the secondary thunderstorms later today into tonight) being my concerns. Tomorrow through the remainder of the week and through the upcoming weekend, my forecast confidence returns to high to very high.
Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel