Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Month: April 2013

TK’s Austin / South Central Texas Forecast

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Updated 845am CDT.. Tuesday / 16 April 2013

TODAY…. Morning low clouds becoming partly cloudy. High 86 to 90. Southerly wind 10 to 20 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy until 10pm then low clouds developing. Low 69 to 73. South southeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds and patchy drizzle otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. A 20% chance of rain showers. High 85 to 89. Southerly wind 10 to 20 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/10th of an inch or less.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight with the approach of a strong cold front. Low 65 to 69. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph becoming more southwesterly after midnight. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch.

THURSDAY…. A 50% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes by 10am. Decreasing clouds.. breezy and cooler in the afternoon. High 70 to 74. Southwesterly wind becoming northerly 10 to 20 mph in the wake of the front. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and much cooler. Low 42 to 46. Northerly wind decreasing to 5 to 12 mph after midnight.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny and unseasonably cool. High 64 to 68. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 39 to 43. Light northeasterly wind becoming southeasterly after midnight.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 70 to 74. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 43 to 47. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 73 to 77. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 51 to 55. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 75 to 79. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 23 April 2013  through Monday / 29 April 2013…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16 April)…………………………. 7:02 am
Sunset this evening (16 April)………………………….. 7:59 pm
Sunrise Wednesday (17 April)…………………………. 7:01 am
Sunset Wednesday (17 April)………………………….. 8:00 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion

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Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 16 April 2013

Partly to Mostly Cloudy Conditions Continue ….
A Cold Front with Thunderstorms Possible for Late Wednesday into Thursday ….
Much Cooler Temperatures Return Briefly Late Week ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a cold front extends from southeastern Missouri into northwestern Arkansas and southwestward into a surface low over the Red River country of northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. The front continues northwestward across northwest Texas into northeastern New Mexico and southern Colorado. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area of Texas.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere…. a broad area of upper level low pressure extends from Hudson Bay southwestward into the intermountain west with a broad trough.. or line of upper air low pressure..  extending southwestward into the southwestern USA. Given this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southwesterly 35 to 45 mph.

Southerly surface winds continue to bring moisture northward from the western Gulf of Mexico. This basic weather pattern will continue through tomorrow with late night and early morning low clouds being the main weather feature over the coming few days. Clouds will break by late morning today with afternoon sunshine getting afternoon high temperatures in the 80s to near 90 degrees.. especially west and southwest of Austin.

By tomorrow night into Thursday.. a strong cold front will move southeastward through Texas with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms likely just ahead of the front as it moves through the area. At this point, I think the cold front will pass over the Austin area in the mid and late morning hours on Thursday with the best instability and atmospheric lift remaining to our distant north and, as a result, the highest rain chances and the threat of severe weather will generally remain to our north. Locally, I think we could see between 1/4 and 1/2 inch of rain with this systems passage.

Drier and cooler air will move down into our area by Thursday afternoon into Friday. Surface high pressure will move east of the area by the weekend with a southerly wind.. warmer temperatures and an increase in cloud cover and humidity by next weekend.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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