Updated 845am CDT Monday / 15 April 2013
Plentiful Low Level Moisture with Partly to Mostly Cloudy Conditions ….
Another Cold Front with Thunderstorms Possible for Late Wednesday into Thursday ….
Much Cooler Temperatures Return Briefly Late Week ….
On this Monday morning…. a weakening cold front extends from southeastern Missouri into Arkansas and westward into a surface low over the Red River country of north Texas andd southern Oklahoma. The front continues west northwestward across northwest Texas into northeastern New Mexico and southern Colorado. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area of Texas.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere…. a broad area of upper level low pressure extends from the upper Mississippi Valley and northern plains into the Pacific northwest with a broad trough.. or line of upper air low pressure.. extending southwestward into the western USA. Given this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west southwesterly 30 to 40 mph.
Southerly surface winds continue to bring abundant moisture northward from the western Gulf of Mexico. This basic weather pattern will continue through mid week with late night and early morning low clouds with patchy morning drizzle being the main weather feature over the coming few days. Clouds will break by late morning over the next few days with afternoon sunshine getting afternoon high temperatures pretty close to 90 degrees.. especially west and southwest of Austin.
By late Wednesday into early Thursday.. a strong cold front will move southeastward through Texas with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms likely just ahead of the front as it moves through the area. At this point, I think the best instability and atmospheric lift will remain to our north and, as a result, the highest rain chances and the threat of severe weather will generally remain to our north. Locally, I think we could see between 1/4 and 1/2 inch of rain with this systems passage.
Drier and cooler air will move down into our area by Thursday into Friday. Surface high pressure will move east of the area by the weekend with a southerly wind.. warmer temperatures and an increase in cloud cover and humidity by next weekend.
Have a good Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel