Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

More Sunshine for the Next Few Days; South Southeasterly Surface Winds Returning Tomorrow Through Early Next Week; A Series of Passing Upper Level Disturbances by Mid into Late Next Week with Minimal Rain Chances Locally At This Point (Fr/20Dec2024)

Any questions? Contact me:
[email protected]
[email protected]

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

Courtesy of WeatherStem, check out the latest CURRENT
University of Texas weather conditions and see the live camera at THIS LINK.

On weekends and other University holidays when this site is not updated,
I encourage you to check out the latest NWS Austin-San Antonio forecast
for metro Austin at THIS LINK.

In times of severe and/or inclement weather, you can follow the latest area
watch, advisory and warning updates from our local NWS Austin-San Antonio
office through their WEBSITE.. or by reading the actual text products (always
the most recent at the top of the page) through THIS LINK which is courtesy of
the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Always check the date and time of issuance
of these NWS text products since, in periods of tranquil weather, the latest
products may be outdated and/or expired.

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS / IH35 CORRIDOR
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

No weather hazards expected.

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS / IH35 CORRIDOR
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A dry and stable weather pattern is in place as a weak reinforcing cold front will psses south southwestward today with surface high pressure then moving east of the area by tomorrow with a return south southeasterly surface wind by afternoon and through the weekend and into the middle part of next week. As a result, we’ll see a warming trend and slow return of gulf moisture by Sunday afternoon and continuing into the middle part of next week.

(2) Longer range guidance continues to suggest a series of upper level low pressure disturbances will move across Texas beginning late Christmas Eve into Christmas Day and Thursday. I will continue minimal precipitation chances Christmas Eve and again on Thursday but, at this point, I still have lower confidence and suggest, given the ongoing chronic drought conditions, we continue to give this a chance to resolve itself before going overboard with any substantial rain chances and rainfall amounts locally. Current data suggests the best rain chances may be, as they have been throughout this fall season, to our north and northeast. Let’s continue to stay tuned for more on this potential weather maker.

Based partially on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, my forecast,
on average, is for rainfall of 0.25 inch or less for our IH35 corridor counties
over the next seven day period (specifically for the Tuesday and Thursday period).

MY LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through Monday night before falling to a low to medium confidence forecast for next Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

Troy’s Weather Forecast
for Austin / University of Texas and the IH35 Corridor
Updated Friday / 20 December 2024

TODAY (20Dec)…. Sunshine as a weak cold front passes. High 67. Light wind becoming northeasterly 8 to 15 mph by afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 35. Northeasterly wind decreasing to 4 to 8 mph before becoming calm by midnight.

SATURDAY (21Dec)…. Mostly sunny in the morning then partly cloudy by afternoon. High 64. Easterly wind early becoming more southeasterly 5 to 10 mph midday into the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 42. Light southeasterly wind becoming calm.

SUNDAY (22Dec)…. Partly cloudy. High 67. Calm wind becoming south southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then turning mostly cloudy late. Low 55. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light southeasterly late.

MONDAY (23Dec)…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 77. South southeasterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early becoming mostly cloudy late. Low 61. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY (24Dec)…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.10 inch. High 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then turning mostly cloudy. Widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.10 inch. Low 52. Southerly wind becoming light and variable.

WEDNESDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY (25Dec)…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 71. Light and variable wind.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 54. Light south southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY (26Dec)…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.10 inch. High 75. Light southerly wind becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 27 December 2024 through Thursday / 02 January 2025
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday/13Dec2024)
Valid Saturday / 29 December 2024 through Friday / 10 January 2025
Temperatures… Higher Chances for Above Normal
Precipitation… Equal Chance for Drier or Wetter than Average

AUSTIN SUNRISE/SUNSET TIMES…..
Today (Fr/20Dec)……………………………………. 7:23 am / 5:35 pm (- 0 minutes)
Tomorrow (Sa/21Dec)…………………………….. 7:23 am / 5:35 pm (- 0 minutes)
Sunday (21Dec)……………………………………… 7:24 am / 5:35 pm (- 1 minutes)

tk