Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

A Mostly Dry and Stable Summer Like Weather Pattern for Much of the Seven Day Period Ahead; However, the “Lid” on the Atmosphere Weakens Slightly into Next Week with Temperatures Falling A Few Degrees with Some Slim Rain Chances Returning to the Forecast as a Disturbance Passes and Weak Cold Front Approaches (Fr/16May2025)

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.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html for a chronological text listing (most current
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…

Fr/16May… Excessive Heat with Highs Around 100 F.. Lightning Threat..
Sa/17May… Excessive Heat with Highs Around 100 F.. Lightning Threat..
Su/18May… Excessive Heat with Highs Around 100 F..
Mo/19May… Unseasonably Warm Temperatures.. Lightning Threat..
Tu/20May… Unseasonably Warm Temperatures.. Lightning Threat..
We/21May… Unseasonably Warm Temperatures.. 
Th/22May… Unseasonably Warm Temperatures..

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A general dry and stable summer like weather pattern is in place overhead even as the upper level high pressure system – think “lid” on the atmosphere – has weakened somewhat over the last 24 hours. Even so, afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s to around the 100 degree mark will continue through the remainder of the week with some continued weakening of the “lid” by the weekend into early next week with temperatures falling a few degrees.

(2) As the upper level high pressure weakens, I will introduce slim rain and storm chances for tomorrow and Saturday and again Monday night into Tuesday as weak upper level low pressure disturbances move east northeastward, mainly during the peak heating hours, across our area. Make no mistake, though, these are slim rain chances and will produce relatively little in the way of rainfall.

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center data and guidance, my forecast is for less than 0.20 inch of rainfall for our IH35 corridor counties through the 7 day forecast period which ends in the early morning hours next Thursday.

MY LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high confidence forecast through the next seven days.

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and the IH35 Corridor
Updated Friday / 16 May 2025

TODAY (16May)…. Some brief morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat after 1pm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.20 inch. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY (17May)…. Some brief morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy and unseasonably hot. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly after 1pm. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.20 inch. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly before 8pm. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.10 inch. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY (18May)…. Some brief morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny and unseasonably hot. High 99. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY (19May)…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 99. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.20 inch. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY (20May)…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat as weak cold front passes by afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.20 inch. High 96. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting northeasterly 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 68. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY (21May)…. Sunshine. High 94. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 65. Light east northeasterly wind.

THURSDAY (22May)…. Mostly sunny. High 93. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 23 May 2025 through Thursday / 29 May 2025
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday/09May2025)
Valid Saturday / 17 May 2025 through Friday / 30 May 2025
Temperatures… Better Chances of Higher Than Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Near to Slightly Below Normal

AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR SUNRISE/SUNSET TIMES…..
Today (Fr/16May)………………………………… 6:36 am / 8:19 pm (+ 2 minutes)
Tomorrow (Sa/17May)…………………………. 6:36 am / 8:19 pm (+ 0 minutes)

tk