Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 08 February 2021
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… No Weather Risks Expected …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) As we start the new week, we continue in a warmer than average and humid air mass across the area with late night and early morning low cloudiness having returned in the overnight into morning hours. This will be the prevailing pattern through Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
(2) As a series of upper level low pressure disturbances move through the area Wednesday.. Wednesday night into early Thursday, a stronger west-to-east oriented cold front will sink down into our area from north Texas by Wednesday evening. For about 12 to 18 hours following the cold frontal passage, we’ll see the last of the passing upper level low pressure disturbances create a chilly overrunning pattern with continuing rain chances into midday Thursday. While the air will be noticeably cooler, I expect the coldest of the air to remain to our distant north and northeast.
(3) In the Thursday night into Saturday time period, in a much lower confidence forecast, indications are that we’ll see clouds break as the much cooler than average surface air mass continues over the area. We need to monitor this lower confidence forecast closely in case temperatures trend colder and clouds do not break as much as I currently expect.
(3) By late Saturday night into Sunday, again, in a low confidence forecast, there are indications that another stronger upper level low pressure disturbance will traverse the area with increased cloud cover and some chance of precipitation. At this point, until we can better resolve the inconsistencies in the model guidance, I will keep the precipitation liquid. This will need to be closely monitored, however, in case temperatures trend colder.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is forecasting .25″ to .50″ rainfall for the IH35 corridor.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to Very High Confidence through Thursday..
Low Confidence Thursday Night through Monday..
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Monday / 08 February 2021
TODAY…. Morning low clouds and patchy fog becoming mostly sunny. High 73. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT…. Mostly clear early then low clouds and patchy fog developing. Low 56. Light southerly wind becoming calm.
TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds and patchy fog then becoming mostly sunny. High 78. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy. Low 57. Light south southeasterly wind.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers in the morning then scattered rain showers and thunderstorms by afternoon with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of morning rain then rain chances increasing to 40% by afternoon. High 73. Light southeasterly wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and turning cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat as a cold front passes in the evening. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. Low 43. Wind shifting north northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Cloudy and cooler with a scattered rain and rain showers mainly before noon. Slowly decreasing clouds by afternoon. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average less than 0.25″. High 54. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 34. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 53. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 35. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 50. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 32. Light northeasterly wind.
SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy with a few patches of rain developing in the afternoon. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. High 48. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 15 February 2021 through Sunday / 21 February 2021…
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (08 February)…………………………………. 7:17 am
Sunset this evening (08 February)…………………………………… 6:14 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (09 February)……………………………………… 7:16 am
Sunset tomorrow (09 February)………………………………………. 6:15 pm