Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
805am CT – Wednesday / 01 May 2019

… A Marginal to Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Today into Tonight for South Central Texas …
… Larger Hail and Damaging Straight Line Thunderstorms Appear to Be the Biggest Risk …
… High Resolution Model Guidance Suggesting Lower Rain Chances Locally Today into Tonight …

With abundant low level moisture and an increasingly unstable atmosphere, passing upper air
disturbances will trigger scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms later today and
tonight and again Friday into Friday night.

However, the latest high resolution model guidance is now suggesting that the highest precipitation
chances and the highest probability of severe weather today into tonight may be shifting further
north and northwest of Austin that we’ve been thinking. This is something I’ll continue to monitor
this today; this could result in a decreased rain chance if the current high resolution model guidance
continues this trend.

Forecast rainfall amounts, over the next seven days (including today’s event, the rainfall event
Friday into Friday night and a third event early next week) has increased slightly and is looking
to average in the 2 to 4 inch range.

Even with the uncertainty, let’s continue to be weather aware today into tonight…
Always have at least two methods of getting weather information..
.. follow me/activate notifications on Twitter .. @troykimmelwx ..
.. have your NWS All Hazards Weather Radio properly set so it can receive and activate
when NWS watches and warnings are issued ..
.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html
for a chronological text listing (most current at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you
must refresh page manually) of NWS Austin-San Antonio watches, advisories and warnings..

Also, remember the difference between NWS WATCHES, ADVISORIES and WARNINGS…

I’ll continue to keep you informed.
tk