ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Response Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
200pm CT – Sunday / 31 May 2020

… NWS/National Hurricane Center Monitoring the Bay of Campache and
Southwestern Gulf of Mexico …

At this point, my thoughts…

Here are the things we can say..
.. the expected rain over the next few days (1-4 days) are more the direct result of
an area of low pressure along the Rio Grande River in the vicinity of Laredo, not because
of the area the NWS/National Hurricane Center is watching. This system is expected to shift
slowly westward into Mexico over the next few days before opening up into more of a trough,
or line of low pressure, over west/southwest Texas by mid week
.. let’s increase our awareness of the system over Guatemala and the possibility of future
development. See the latest NWS/National Hurricane Center official tropical weather outlook
graphic/text below..

Here are the things it is entirely too early to say..
.. exactly how things will unfold locally in the 5-7 day forecast period
(at this point, the 5 to 7 day forecast locally is low confidence at best)
.. whether or not this system over Guatemala develops into a system that ultimately affects Texas
.. if it does, exactly where or at what strength it will be as it comes ashore

In the next few days, I caution everyone to NOT concentrate on one computer
model / spaghetti model solutions just because it is being peddled on social media ONLY
because it looks sexy (heard of “click bait”?). Let’s closely monitor the official
guidance/information from the NWS/National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov)
as well as our local Texas NWS offices such as NWS/Austin-San Antonio (https://www.weather.gov/ewx/).

I’ll continue to monitor..
tk

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for 
tropical cyclone formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

1. Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression Amanda, centered inland over 
eastern Guatemala, is forecast weaken into a remnant low or 
dissipate by tonight. However, the remnants of Amanda are expected 
to move northwestward within a broader area of disturbed weather, 
and could emerge over the southeastern Bay of Campeche on Monday. If 
the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear 
conducive to support some development, and a new tropical depression 
could form while the system moves little through the middle of this 
week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is 
likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El 
Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days. For 
additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from 
your national meteorological service. The next Special Tropical 
Weather Outlook will be by 9 PM EDT tonight, or earlier if 
necessary. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown/Brennan