Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 21 September 2020 ….
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… Tropical Cyclone Beta Makes Landfall on Texas Coast Tonight …
… Rain Continues and Isolated Thunderstorms With a Lightning Threat …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) Tropical cyclone Beta will move ashore of the middle Texas coast by later today into early tonight. After moving ashore and moving a little further northwestward, the system will then sharply turn northeastward and move slowly northeastward paralleling the upper Texas coast. Rain chances will continue until the system starts to moving northeastward into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana by midweek.
(2) A drier and more stable weather pattern will take hold for the IH35 corridor in the wake of Beta by Wednesday and continuing through much of the weekend with sunshine and warmer temperatures returning.
(3) A stronger cold front will move through the area by midday into afternoon on Sunday. A relatively dry and stable air mass in advance of the front will keep rain out of my forecast.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, in a very low confidence forecast, suggests the potential of 0.50″ to 1.00″, in general, for the IH35 corridor over the next seven days (through Sunday) with temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Today through Tuesday..
High to Very High confidence
Tuesday Night through Sunday..
Very High confidence
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Monday / 21 September 2020
TODAY…. Cloudy with rain and rain showers likely and isolated thunderstorms possible with an associated lightning threat. A 60%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. High 72. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy with rain and rain showers likely and isolated thunderstorms possible with an associated lightning. A 60%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. Low 67. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly south and southeast of the Austin area. A 50%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. High 75. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. Low 66. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Decreasing clouds early becoming partly cloudy. High 80. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 64. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY…. Sunshine. High 83. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 63. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light and variable late.
FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 86. Light west southwesterly wind.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 65. Light wind.
SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 89. Light south southeasterly wind.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 67. Light southeasterly wind.
SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny as a cold front passes by afternoon. High 88. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph shifting northerly 10 to 20 mph and gusty by afternoon.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 28 September 2020 through Sunday / 04 October 2020…
Temperatures… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (21 September)…………………………….. 7:19 am
Sunset this evening (21 September)………………………………. 7:28 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (22 September)…………………………………. 7:19 am
Sunset tomorrow (22 September)………………………………….. 7:27 pm