Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 08 May 2015

.. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Increase into the Weekend ..
.. Heavier Rain and Severe Weather Possible for the Weekend Into Next Week ..
.. Weak Cold Frontal Passage Due Late Monday ..

On this Friday…. a surface high pressure area is the southeastern USA. A cold front extends southwestward from northeastern Missouri into Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle into northeastern New Mexico. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends southward from northwest Texas into far west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an deepening (strengthening) upper level low pressure system is over southern California. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west southwesterly.

With the broad area of upper air low pressure storm system still out to our west.. we’ll continue to see weak disturbances being ejected and then moving northeastward across the state of Texas. As these disturbances approach us, we’ll see increased atmospheric lift with increased cloud cover and rain showers and thunderstorm chances through the balance of the seven day forecast period. With the chance of thunderstorms comes the risk of dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

The latest guidance.. from the National Weather Service.. suggests than 5 inches or more of additional rain could fall across our area beginning today through the mid part of next week. I am watching particularly the latter part of the weekend with the best chance of rain and thunderstorms.. and potential heavy rain.. for Sunday into Monday.

Severe thunderstorms.. accompanied by larger hail, damaging thunderstorm wind and even a few tornadoes.. are more likely to the north of the area in the coming couple of days but it is still something we have to monitor closely.

Temperatures will be near or slightly below seasonal averages through the next seven days.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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