Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Special Briefings…. (815am CT-Fri/08May2015)

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #5
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
815am CT – Friday / 08 May 2015

Rain Chances Increase into the Weekend ….
Severe Weather Risk Mainly in Areas North of Austin Area ….
Heavy Rain / Flood Threat Potentially Developing Over the Weekend and
Continuing into Next Week ….

This continues my series of weather emails, regarding the heavier rains, from
earlier in the week. As I pointed out previously in my last email (update #4) on
Wednesday, I am increasingly becoming concerned with the threat of heavy rain
and potential flooding beginning over the weekend and continuing into early and
mid parts of next week.

Over the next few days, a large upper level low pressure storm system, over
southern California, will move east northeastward slowly creating an increasing
unstable atmosphere over Texas in advance of the upper air system. Tropical
moisture is in place over the southeastern 2/3rds of Texas with dew point temperatures
in the 60s and 70s. A cold front will slowly move southeastward into Texas Monday
into Monday night. All of this will combine to create abundant atmospheric lift and, as
a result, a very wet and stormy weather pattern.

What is probably most concerning is the latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center
7 day rainfall (between now and next Friday morning) potential with upwards of 10 inches
of rain forecast in areas southeast of Austin and 5 to 7 inches potentially in the Austin
area proper where we, in some areas, received upwards of 4 to 8 inches earlier this week ..

The risk of severe thunderstorms (larger hail, damaging straight line thunderstorm
wind and tornadoes) will primarily.. in the three days ahead.. be north through
northeast of the local area. However, this something we should continue to monitor
closely as well.

Stay weather aware… I will continue to monitor… tk