Updated 845am CT – Tuesday / 22 April 2014
…. A Mostly Dry and Stable Weather Pattern over the Rest of the Week ….
…. Slim Thunderstorm Chances Mid Week and Again Late in the Weekend ….
…. A Cold Front into Texas Again Late Sunday into Monday ….
On this Tuesday morning…. a weakening cold front extends southwestward from middle and western Tennessee into northern Louisiana and overhead just southeast of the Austin area then westward as a stationary front into southwest Texas and New Mexico. High pressure /1020mb/.. behind the front.. is over northern Kansas and Nebraska. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure is over the Mississippi Valley with another one along the west coast of the USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly 15 to 25 mph.
In the wake of the weak cold front that made its way into our area last night into this morning, we’ll see a weak east northeasterly surface wind flow today into tonight before turning back south southeasterly by early tomorrow morning.
We’ll return to more sunshine.. with a partly cloudy sky.. for the middle and latter part of the new week. A weak upper air disturbance could trigger one or two thunderstorms Wednesday night into early Thursday but probabilities of rain are very slim.
Another upper level low pressure disturbance.. off the Pacific Ocean and across the southwestern USA and northwestern Mexico.. will approach the area by next weekend with another cold front forecast to approach our area by late Sunday into Sunday night with it moving through the area by daybreak next Monday. At this point, rain chances again look limited and mainly late Sunday into early Monday.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is back to high to very high for tomorrow through Friday. My confidence falls back to medium to high confidence for Saturday and Sunday as the next upper level low pressure storm system and surface cold front approaches the area.
Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel