Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Special Briefing….

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #4
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
945pm CT – Monday / 21 April 2014

…. Severe Thunderstorm Watch Will be Allowed to Expire for the IH35 Corridor Counties at 10pm ….

The NWS/Storm Prediction Center states that they will allow.. through consultation with local
weather forecast offices.. the severe thunderstorm watch for the IH35 counties to expire at its
expiration time of 10pm. A new watch is not anticipated at this time.

No significant weather has occurred in the IH35 corridor counties with this weather event..
the weather has been confined to the hill country counties to our west and to some of the counties
to our northwest west of Temple and Waco.

This is my last statement on this weather event.

tk

922pm CT – Mon/21Apr2014

…. Authority: NWS Storm Prediction Center ….

This discussion addresses the fact that the severe thunderstorm watch will likely
expire at 10pm (some local extensions possible over the hill country)…

Link:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0379.html

Continuing to monitor.. tk

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #3
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
900pm CT – Monday / 21 April 2014

…. Monitoring Thunderstorms to Our Distant West Over the Texas Hill Country ….
…. Severe Thunderstorm Watch Continues Until 10pm for Counties Along and West of IH35 ….

At 855pm CT.. NWS Doppler weather radar shows scattered strong thunderstorms over
Mason.. Gillespie.. Kendall and Comal Counties.. the thunderstorms are moving southeastward.

Both thunderstorm clusters have the potential to produce hail to near 1 inch and strong gusty
winds.

Radar does indicate a few sprinkles over the northeastern part of Travis County and the Austin
metro area at 855pm.

At this point, I expect the severe thunderstorm watch issued around 3pm for Williamson.. Travis..
Hays.. Burnet and Blanco counties to expire at 10pm.

There has been no significant weather in the IH35 corridor counties with this system so far.

Continuing to monitor..

tk

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
630pm CT – Monday / 21 April 2014

…. Monitoring Thunderstorms to Our Distant West / Northwest ….
…. Severe Thunderstorm Watch Continues Until 10pm for Counties Along and West of IH35 ….

…. No Immediate Threat of Thunderstorms on the IH35 Corridor ….

At 630pm CT.. NWS Doppler weather radar shows strong thunderstorms over northern
Gillespie.. southwestern Llano and southeastern Mason Counties.. in the area northwest through
northeast of Fredericksburg. The thunderstorms are moving southward.

Other small and isolated strong thunderstorms are moving eastward and located between
Fort Hood and Lampasas.. well to our northwest.

Both thunderstorm clusters have the potential to produce hail to near 1 inch.

Based on current radar trends, I do not expect any thunderstorm activity in the
IH35 corridor through 830pm..

tk

520pm CT Monday / 21 April 2014

…. Authority / NWS Storm Prediction Center ….

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a new MESOSCALE DISCUSSION…
please pay special attention to the final paragraph as it mentions the Austin area as we
get closer to sunset and the possibility of a hail and strong straight line thunderstorm wind
event until about 8 or 9pm..

Web link to this discussion: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0377.html

Continuing to monitor…
tk


 

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #1
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
500pm CT – Monday / 21 April 2014

…. Monitoring Thunderstorms to Our Northwest ….
…. Severe Thunderstorm Watch Continues Until 10pm for Counties Along and West of IH35 ….

I’m continuing to watch the development of thunderstorms our our northwest.. the thunderstorms
have developed along and ahead of a weakening cold front in association with maximum afternoon
heating.. atmospheric instability and atmospheric lift. They appear to be going through strengthening/
weakening phases (pulse like thunderstorms) and are not particularly well structured. They have
produced some hail to severe size (1 inch) in the last hour around Llano. The storms are  moving
southeastward.

A severe thunderstorm watch was issued between 3 and 4pm for areas along and northwest of
the IH35 corridor…

Here is a link to the watch text info…
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0085.html

The watch… until 10pm.. includes the following counties…
Travis.. Hays.. Williamson.. Burnet.. Blanco.. Milam

The main risk with these storms is larger hail.. there is also a risk of strong straight line
thunderstorm winds.

I am looking for this to be a relative “low” probability thunderstorm event for any
given location.. although we need to be weather aware. I think that this activity should
decrease within a few hours of sunset with the loss of daytime heat and the
reestablishment of a stable atmospheric layer aloft.

I’ll continue to monitor..
tk