Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #11
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
240pm CT – Monday / 11 May 2015
…. Flash Flood Watch Continues for IH35 Corridor Valid Until 4pm Tuesday ….
…. NWS/Storm Prediction Center Issues Mesoscale Discussion for the
Possibility of a Few Severe Thunderstorms Mainly to our South Later this
Afternoon into this Evening ….
With some breaks in the clouds, we’re seeing an increase in surface heating and
this could contribute to thunderstorm redevelopment.. some possibly strong.
Notice the likelihood of watch issuance is relatively low at this point and mainly
south of the Austin area proper.
LINK: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0612.html
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0612 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 111916Z - 112115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SRN TX LATER TODAY. LOCALIZED HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU INCREASING NEAR A SWD-ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR A HOUSTON TO SAN ANTONIO TO DEL RIO CORRIDOR. TO THE S...SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXIST WITH LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS AND MUCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG. AS OF 19Z...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER MEXICO SW OF DEL RIO...AND W OF THE HOUSTON AREA. WLY FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT UNDERCUTTING OF THE INITIAL ACTIVITY. HOWEVER WITH TIME...AS LARGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS FORM...THEY MAY EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE IN SWD DIRECTION WITH MORE OF A WIND THREAT. IN ADDITION...STRONG UPDRAFTS DUE TO MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CORES. ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2015